Lạm bàn về định hướng kế hoạch 2010 (tiếp theo)

NGHIEN cau - TRAO OOI

Lam ban ve djnh htfo^ng ke hoach 2010

(Tiep theo ky truoc)

Di vio tung chi tidu, xin lam

ban thdm nhu sau;

1) Tdc dp tang GDP

Nam 2009 cd khi nflng chi dat

5%, do xufli khflu 7 thing cdn giam

13,4%, khi nflng ci nam khdng

tflng, tham chi co thi cdn giim. Vi

vfly, ki hoach (KH) 2010 chi nen

du kie'n d mttc 6,5% la cd tinh kha

thi, nhttng d mttc 7% cd thd la qui

cao, bdi cao hon td'c do tflng theo

udc tinh ci nam 2009 tdi 2 diem

phin trflm, cdn cao bon td'c do tang

cua nam 2008. Mat khic cd 2 yd'u

td quan trong cua tang trucmg kinh

te nflm 2009 diu thfl'p hon nam

2008, dd la;

- O diu vflo, ty Id vd'n dflu tu/GDP

(40,7% so vdi 41,3%);

- O dau ra, td'c do tang kim ngach

xufli khflu (6% so vdi 29,1%).

Hon nua, td'c do tang gii tidu

dung vfln dugc kiim che dudi 10%,

till khd dat ci 2 muc tidu; vua tang

trudng cao hon, vtta kiim chd dugc

lam phit? Ngoai ra, cac muc tidu vi

xa hdi, vi mdi trudng cung cao.

Mot diim can luu y la, ngay c i

khi dat dugc 7%, thi muc tieu cua

KH 5 nam (2006- 2010) cQng khdng

dat dugc (chi dat 6,96%/nam, trong

khi muc tidu di ra la 7,5- 8%/nam,

phin di'u dat tren 8%).

2) Tdc do tang gia trj tang

them cua tung nhom nganh

Trong ba nhdm nginh, ting

trudng cdng nghiep-xiy dung bai

cao, khdng cbi cao ban nhiiu so

vdi td'c do tang nim 2009 (6 thing

mdi tang 3,48%) vi cao ban c i td'c

do tang cua nam 2008 (6,11%);

tflng trirdng dich vu cung rfli cao

khi mi nim 2008 ting 7,18% va 6

thing tang 5,5%.

3) GDP gia so sanh

KH 5 nflm vi Chie'n lugc di ra

nim 2010 cao gip ddi nim 2000.

Theo dd nim 2010, GDP gii so

sanh nam 2010 phai dat 574,6

nghin ty ddng. Dtt kidn KH nam

2010 khdng di ra, nhttng cd kba

nang dat dugc.

4) GDP gia thuc te

Muc tidu di ra khi cao, ldn dd'n

I960- 1970 nghin ty ddng. Trong

khi nflm 2008 mdi dat 1.447,7

nghin ty ddng; nflm 2009 ndu ting

5% va chi sd giim phit GDP la 8%,

tuc li gii thuc td tang 13,4%, thi

cung mdi dat 1.642 nghin ty ddng.

Nim 2010, vdi chi sd giim phit

GDP xip xi 10%, ndu GDP theo gii

so sinh tuang 6,5%, thi GDP tinh

theo gia thuc td cung chi dat 1921

nghin ty ddng; ne'u GDP theo gii so

sinh tflng 7%, thi GDP tinh theo gii

thuc tdcung cbi dat 1931 nghin ty

ddng. Ne'u di ra mttc cao nhtt trdn

Ihi chi cd lam pbit vuejt (tttc Ii td'c

TRAN DAO

do tang gii tieu dttng phai d mttc 2

chtt so, ddng thdi chi sd giam phat

GDP cung d mttc 2 chu so') mdi dat

dugc chi tieu nay.

5) GDP quy USD

Nim 2008 dat 89,1 ty USD

Nam 2009, GDP theo gii thuc tddat

1.642 nghin ty ddng; ty gii binh

quin 7 thing tang 9,03%, kha nflng

ca nim se ting thi'p ban (uc5c tinh

ting khoang 7%), trong khi nam

2008 dat 16.583 VND/USD, thi ty

gii nam 2009 se li 17.744

VND/USD; khi dd GDP quy USD

se la 92,5 ty USD. Nam 2010, veii

GDP tinh theo gii thuc td dat duex

nhu ngudi viei udc tinh nhu d tren

va ty gii ting khoang 6% (dat

18.809 VND/USD), thi GDP quy

USD chi dat khoang trdn dudi 102,5

ty USD. Hon nua, theo du kid'n KH,

vdi GDP theo gii thuc td la 1960-

1970 nghin ty ddng vi quy ra USD

li 108 ty USD thi ty gii chi d mirc

18.148- 18.241 VND/USD, chi tflng

9,4-10% so vdi nam 2008; trong khi

7 thing nim 2009 da tang gin bing

v6i m.uc dd.

So 16/2009

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