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o Policy

Kinh te vi mo

dang kho khan hon dw bao

Bai vigt cua tiin si Tri n Du Lich, thanh vien Hoi dong Tu win Chi'nh sach Tai chinh Tien

te Quoc gia dang tren website Chinh phu, phan tich tinh hinh kinh ti vl mo hien nay va d^

xuit giai phap. Tap chi Kinh ti Chau A - Thai Binh Duong xin gidi thieu bai Viit nay.

Qua 2 thang dau nam 2011. cd

the lliiiy tinh hinh kinh te vi mo gap

khd khan hon nam 2010 va nghiem

trgng hon chung la dp dodn.

Tinh hinh nay dang gay ap lire

lan tdi kinhte vimo.

Thir nhat la dp lyc kim phiit cao.

Ciing klid khan ho'n khi chung la

phai chdng Iam phdt trong didu

kicMi lai suat cao. Ve nguyen tiic,

mudn chdng Iam phat thi phdi lang

Iai sual. Nhung ldi suat hien nay da

Ciio nen klidng the tang dugc nuii.

Nghia la cdng cu lien lc- bi vd hiim

hda mdt phan.

Thu hai la ty gia. Tinh lrang 2 gia

tren Ihi trudng dd tdn t;,ii tu nhiing

thang cudi nam 2010, nen den nay

viec dieu chinh ty gia Id dieu duong

nliien. Viec dieu chinh vua rdi la

hgp tbuc hda mdt mat bdng ty gia

da hinh thdnh, chu khdng phai la

pha gia hay Iam ddng Viet Nam

mill gid.

Thir ba la tinh trang nhap sieu,

Iham hut can can vdng lai. Miic du

nam 2010 xuat khiiu da tang ngoan

muc, len tdi hon 26%; dac biet,

ngan sach ndm 2010 lai tang thu

hon 100.000 ly ddng. Tuy nhien, 2

\'du td rat lich cpc nay chua the bu

dugc tinh lrang nhap sieu cao va

bgi chi ngiin sach nha nudc.

Mdl kho khan nua ve phia

doanh nghiep lii vdn trung ban

ludn ludn thieu v i ngudn huy ddng

liel kic^m nam 2010 chu yeu chi cd

ngan han. BCMI canh dd, tinh hinh

Tien sy Tran Du Lich

the gidi Iai khdng thuan Igi. Nguy

CO tdng gia dau, gia luang thuc

thuc pham... dan den viec tiem an

cac con si'it gia...

Trong bdi canh nhu vay, kinh le

Viet Nam nam 2011 gap khdng it

khd khdn. Dd la Iy do, dau ndm

Chinh phu dua ra thdng diep tap

trung dn dinh vl md.

Mdt lrong nhung van de quan

trgng dat ra trong bdi cdnh bien

nay la phai tao niem tin cho tbi

trudng. Sy bien ddng ty gia trong

nhung ngdy qua, sau khi Ngan

hang Nha nudc dieu chinh tang

9,3% va giam bien do giao dich cdn

1% la do thi trudng chua thuc su tin

tudng viio kha nang kiem che lam

phat, nghia lii lam phat ky vgng cdn

rat ldn. Ben canh dd, van cdn tdm

ly tiep tuc gam giu ngoai te, trong

dieu kien nen kinh te bi ddla boa,

nen cang khd khan.

Hien tugng difu cir USD dang

gav' dp lyc manh me cung cifii tbi

Irudng ngoai te. Viec ly gia giua

\'.\D va USD giam trong vai nam

gan day, lrong bdi canh USD Iai

mill gia so tren thi trucing the giiii

vii bdu bet ddng tien cua cac ndn

kinh te mdi ndi ddu lang gia so vcri

U'SD... the hien ndn kinh te ViiM

Nam ydu kem ve mat co' cau; tham

hut can cdn vang lai va bdi clii

ngan sdch nha nuefc. Vi viiy, khdng

it ngudi vim cd lam Iy Io liing.

Can ca 'gbi giai phap'

Vice didu chinh ly gia la dung,

nhung chua du de gidi quyet mdi

quan he "bd lia" : lam phat, ly gia

va ldi suat. Trong bcii canh hiilm

nay, can thuc hien ddng bg nhieu

gidi phap trong khi chung la mdi

cbi lam cd mgt viec Id dieu chinh ly

gia.

Tdi cho rang, chung ta can Iam

"cd gdi" cdc gidi phap thi nicji cd

the phd vd tam Iy Iam phat ky vgng.

Ddu tien, phdi cho thi trudng tha'y

rang, viec dieu chinh ty gia Ian nay

la dn dinh va giu dugc gia VND nhu

muc hien nay trong ca nam 2011.

Mud'n lam dugc didu nay phai dya

vao nang lyc du tru ngoai te, kha

nang dieu hdnh va liem luc can

thiep thi tmdng cua Chinh phu.

Thif 2 la phai kidrn sodt du(;c

gia ca. Chung ta phai tra Icji durjc

cau hdi, bao gi(> trie do lang gia

dugc kim lai. Lien quan den viec

ndy, mgt cau boi hbi khac dang dat

ra Id Chinh phii cd nen lang gia cdc

12 iiNH TF CHAU A - THAI BiNH DUONG So 322 (3/2011)