Giải mã những ngưỡng cao kỷ lục của giá vàng

B I J TAI CHfMH niinn TE & HOI NHAP

Giai ma nhOng ngirong cao ky luc • A

cua gia vang

NGUYEN HtfU TUAN

Vien Kinh te - Tai chinh

Trong nhung ngdy cudi thdng 9 ddu thdng 10/2010 vita qua, gid vdng the gioi

lien tiep lap cdc ky luc mdi, dao ddng quanh muc 1.340 - 1.3501ISDjounce.

Neu tinh tii ddu ndm 2010 den nay, gid vdng dd tdng khodng 20% vd dang

hudng tdi ndm tdng gid thu 10 lien tiep - chudi tdng gid ddi nhdt trong lich su

giao dich cua mat hdng ndy.

Nhung nguyen nhan

tdng gia vang the gioi

Cd the ndi, giai doan viia

qua la mdt diu mdc quan

trpng ddi vdi ca thi trudng

vang the gidd va trong nudc.

Trong khi gia vang the gidi

chinh thiic pha vd nguong hd

trg 1.300 USD/ounce va thid't

lap miic cao ky luc mdi 1.366

USD/ounce vao ngay 07/10

thi gia vang trong nudc ciing

da 33,00 trieu ddng/lugng vao

ngay 06/10 vira qua. Vdi miic

gia nhu hien nay, gia vang the

gidd da tang tren 300

USD/ounce so vdi cung ky

nam ngoai (tuong duong

khoang 31%). Nhu vay, sau 9

nam thi trudng lien tuc tang

gia thi nam 2010 nay cd the trd

thanh nam tang gia thii 10 Uen

hep eiia vang.

Nhung nam gin day, dae

biet tu nam 2009 de'n nay, thi

trudng vang the gidd ludn sdi

ddng do cac nha diu tu chen

chan tim chd trii In an toan

khi thi trudng chiing khoan va

thi trudng bit dpng san bie'n

ddng khd ludng. Nhieu nha

diu tu rdt tien vao vang thdng

qua thi trudng chiing khoan

nhu mua cd phieu ciia cac

cdng ty khai thae vang, hoac

cae quy diu tu chiing khoan

tdng hgp nhung sd khac lai

chgn each mua vang true tie'p.

Nhd dd, trong vdng 10 nam

qua gia vang da tang glp 5 lln

(so vdi miie 251 USD/ounce

hdi thang 9/1999) va dang d

miie cao nha't mgi thdi dai.

Tuy vay, hien vin chua ed dau

hieu nao eho tha'y gia vang se

sdm ha nhiet bdi nhung

nguyen nhan sau:

- Cdc NHTWchdu Au ngimg

hdn vdng: Ngay 27/09, Td Fi￾nancial Times dua tin, eae

NHTW thupe khu vuc ddng

tien chung Euro cimg vdi

Thuy Dien va Thuy Sy da

giam manh lugng vang ban ra

trong 1 nam trd lai day. Trong

vdng 1 nam tinh tdi thang

9/2010, cac qude gia ky ke't

Thda thuan vang (CBGA -

dugc ky ke't bdd eac qud'c gia

nam trong khu vuc ddng Euro,

Thuy Sy va Thuy Dien nhim

dat miie trIn eho tdng lugng

vang ban ra bdi cac NHTW

hang nam) chi ban ra 6,2 tin

vang, giam 96% so vdi nam

trudc. Day la lupng vang ban

ra thap nhat ke tir khi CBGA

raddi.

52

Ciing theo Financial Times,

viec cae NHTW chau Au

ngung ban vang ra xuat phat

ttr vide hp danh gia lai vai trd

ciia vang trong bdi canh

khiing hoang ng tan edng vao

khu vue. Trude kia, vang bi

chau Au xem la mpt tai san cd

kha nang sinh lpi kem, nhung

theo udc tinh ciia edng ty tu

van kim loai quy GFMS thi

nam 2010 la nam ma eac

NHTW lln diu tien mua rdng

vang ke tir nam 1988 trd lai

day, du khdi lupng mua rdng

mdi chl vao khoang 15 tan.

Nhiing dgt mua vang ehinh

thiie vdi quy md ldn, len tdi vai

tram tin, chua lln nao di§n ra

ke tir nam 1965 - trudc giai

doan sup do ciia he thd'ng ty

gia hd'i doai ed dinh neo budc

vao vang Bretton Woods.

- Lo ngai lam phdt: Khi

khiing toan toan elu nd ra,

nhieu NHTW tren the gidd da

ap dung eac chlnh sach ndi

long tien te va hang nghin ty

USD da dugc bom ra thi

trudng de giiip nen kinh te

ehdng lai nguy ea suy thoai.

He qua keo theo la ap luc lam

phat gia tang va niem tm eiia

ngudi dan vao ddng tien giiy

THANG 10/2010 Tai ciiinh