Future Developments

9

Future Developments

9.1 Introduction

In this concluding chapter, we attempt to look beyond satellite-UMTS/IMT-2000 and in the

process highlight some of the key technological drivers that are likely to have an impact on

the mobile-satellite industry over the next few years.

Of course, predicting how technology is likely to advance over the next 10 years or so, in

such a dynamic and innovative industry, is no easy task. However, there are certain techno￾logical drivers and new research initiatives that allow us to identify with some degree of

confidence how the industry is likely to evolve with some credibility. One thing is for sure, as

the mobile generation matures, the expectancy for high quality, interactive multimedia

services delivered at ever increasing data rates is an inevitable consequence of service

evolution.

If, rather than writing this chapter at the start of the 21st Century, we were outlining how

the mobile industry was likely to evolve a decade ago, we would probably have been some

way off with many of our predictions. In this respect, we would not have been alone. On the

other hand, certain technological developments known at the start of the last decade have

come to fruition with varying degrees of success. For example, at the start of the 1990s,

second-generation cellular was on the verge of commercial development, while the concepts

of satellite-PCN were starting to be taken seriously for the first time. Moreover, attention had

switched to the development of third-generation (3G) network technologies. Ten years on, we

now live in an environment where mobile technology is commonplace and satellite-PCN

facilities are now starting to gradually become established, although as demonstrated in

Chapter 2, the road to commercial reality has been anything but smooth.

As we have seen in the previous chapter, the spectacular success of mobile technology has

not been of benefit to satellite-PCN, at least in the developed areas of the world. Confidence

in the mobile-satellite industry has gradually been eroded with difficulties with the technol￾ogy and, significantly, disappointing sales. It is not all gloom and doom, however, within the

mobile-satellite community. The latter half of the last decade witnessed a noticeable shift in

emphasis away from non-geostationary satellite technology towards larger, multi-spot-beam

geostationary satellites. This can be seen with the initiatives described in Chapter 2 including

ACeS, THURAYA and INMARSAT-4. Importantly, this new generation of powerful satel￾lites is able to provide hand-held telephony services, compatible with terrestrial cellular

systems. Significantly, the dual-mode mobile phones that are used in such networks are

Mobile Satellite Communication Networks. Ray E. Sheriff and Y. Fun Hu

Copyright q 2001 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

ISBNs: 0-471-72047-X (Hardback); 0-470-845562 (Electronic)

now comparable in dimensions to their terrestrial counterparts. Moreover, ETSI are now in

the process of finalising the standardisation of the inter-working between geostationary

satellites and the GSM network, under its GMR-1 and GMR-2 standards. The importance

of standardisation over the last decade has been the key to the success of systems such as

GSM, and the move towards the standardisation of the satellite component of GSM and

UMTS/IMT-2000 is an important step forward in an industry that is dominated by proprietary

solutions.

Perhaps, a decade ago, the influence of mobile Internet access would not have taken up too

many paragraphs, however, of all the technological advances over the last 10 years, it is this

technological area that many mobile operators are now catering their future market require￾ments. In such an environment, the mobile-satellite network, like its terrestrial counterpart,

will need to operate in a packet-oriented transmission environment, where a high degree of

integrity of the transmission, in terms of quality of service (QoS), is required.

One area that is still very much open to discussion is the identification of the ‘‘killer’’

application that will drive the next demand for 3G technologies. While its good to talk, not

everyone necessarily feels at home in front of a computer. Clearly, how applications and

services evolve over the next few years could have a significant bearing on how the satellite

component is utilised in what is intended to be a fully integrated space/terrestrial mobile

network.

While the last decade marked a remarkable advancement in the telecommunications

infrastructure of the affluent nations of the world, as a consequence, the gap between the

‘‘haves’’ and ‘‘have nots’’ has taken on a greater significance. The fact is that in many parts

of the world, the telecommunications infrastructure is not in place simply to establish a

telephone call, be it by fixed or mobile means. Figure 9.1 shows the low level of market

penetration of cellular mobile communications in Africa at the start of the 21st Century.

Clearly, take-up levels are significantly lower than Europe, for example. Perhaps, more

significantly, Figure 9.2 shows the corresponding number of fixed telephone lines per 100

inhabitants [ITU-00]. This illustrates the shortage of telecommunications facilities within

this part of the world.

The positive influence of telecommunications on the socio-economic development of a

region/nation is well known. Of all of the areas in telecommunications that need to be

addressed over the next decade, the needs of the developing regions of the world ranks

among the highest priorities. The use of satellite communications to establish a telecommu￾nications infrastructure rapidly and cost effectively, has obvious attractions to many regions

of the world. Of course, if such a commercial venture is to be viable, the operational costs of

such a network should be at such a level that call charge-rates and terminal costs can be

offered at a price which would ensure mass market penetration. While the technology may

already be available to provide the telecommunications infrastructure to those regions of the

world in most need, further advancements in production techniques, combined with innova￾tive business solutions, are required in order to reduce the development and service costs to a

level that is affordable to the needy.

9.2 Super GEOs

The introduction of the THURAYA and ACeS geostationary satellite networks marks a

significant moment in the mobile-satellite communications industry’s development. The

320 Mobile Satellite Communication Networks