Diễn biến mới của kinh tế thế giới tháng 3/2011 và tác động tới kinh tế Việt Nam

DIE N BIE N MO I CU A KIN H T E TH E Gif t THAN G 3/201 1

V A TA G DON G TO I KIN H T E VIE T NA M

ThS. DANG NGOC TRAM vd Nhom nghien ciiu

Ban Kinh te The gidi

Trung tam Thdng tin va DU bao kinh te xa hoi quoc gia

I. Diln bien mdi cua kinh te

the gidi thang 3/2011

Tmh hinh the gidi thang

3/2011 chdng kien nhieu bat on,

trong do noi troi va nghiem trong

nhat la bat on chinh tri tiep tuc

leo thang tai Trung Dong - Bic

Phi va tham hoa kep dong dat -

song than va ro r'i hat nhan tai

Nhat Ban. NhQng bat on td ca

the gidi tu nhien va ddi sdng xa

hoi lam cho con ngtfdi them lo

iSng vS mot the gidi ngay cang

trd nen bat trac, lam lu md nhdng

chi dau kinh te quan trong cho

thay stf phuc hoi cua nen kinh te

thtfc dang ngay mot rd net.

Hoat dong san xuat va thuang

mai the gidi dang phuc hoi va lay

lai da tang trudng manh me. Chi

so PMI trong ITnh vtfc san xua't

toan cau tiep tuc da di len manh

me va cho den het thang 2/2011,

ch? sd nay da dat mdc 57,8, tiem

can mufc ky luc 57,9 ddpc xac lap

ke td thang 4/2004. Da tang

trddng nay dddc trd ldc bdi sdc

bat manh me cua cac nen kinh te

phat trien, trong dd chi sd PMI d

My ghi nhan mdc cao thd hai

trong vdng 7 nam trong khi tai khu

The world in March of 2011 witnessed many instabilities, notably

escalating political instability in Middle East and North Africa and dou￾ble disasters earthquake - tsunami and nuclear leakage in Japan.

Nevertheless, af the moment many economic signals show that the

recovery of real economic sector is becoming clearer with the recov￾ery and regaining momentum of production and trade activities.

Besides, Inflation, public debt and major financial and monetary disor￾ders still are main difficulties of the world economy.

In such context, Vietnam economy should be prepared to face

negative impacts brought about by global economic movements,

especially on export and import activities, investment, credit and

labour export.

vdc sd dung ddng euro (khu vdc Eurozone), chi sd nay dat mdc cao nhat

trong vdng hdn 10 nam qua. Ddi vdi Trung Qudc, chi sd PMI ITnh vdc

san xuat tuy ghi nhan thang thd 7 lien tiep giam, song vin tiep tuc duy

tri d mdc tren 50 la mdc cho thay sd md rdng.

San xuat tang trddng, thi trtfdng viec lam the gidi cung ghi nhan

nhieu chuyen bien tich cdc. Chi sd lao dong trong ITnh vdc sin xuat

dac biet khdi sac d My, Anh va Ddc, trong khi ghi nhan sd di xudng d

Trung Qudc, An Do, Tay Ban Nha, Hy Lap v l Oxtraylia. Diem sing

cua thj trddng viec lam toan cau thang nay la d My khi ty le that

nghiep trong thing 2/2011 tiep tuc gilm thang thd 3 lien tiep, xudng

con 8,9%, mdc thap nhat ke td thing 4/2009, vdi 192.000 viec lam

mdi dddc tao ra.

Sin xuat tang trddng da thuc day thuong mai toan cau tiep tuc phat

trien manh. Chi sd ddn dat hlng xuat khau mdi chdng kien mdc tang

manh nhat td thang 5/2010 song khdng phd bien d moi nen kinh te.

Din dau dang II cac nen kinh te phat trien (kinh te My chdng kien

chi sd ddn dat hang xuat khau mdi cd sd md rdng Idn nhat ke td thang

12/1988) trong khi cac nen kinh te mdi ndi tiep tuc hut hoi trong cudc

So 63 (3.2011) THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI 11