Decision making support systems

Decision Making

Support Systems:

Achievements, Trends and

Challenges for the New Decade

Manuel Mora Autonomous University

of Aguascalientes, Mexico

Guisseppi A. Forgionne University of

Maryland, Baltimore County, USA

JatinderN. D.Gupta University of

Alabama in Huntsville, USA

Acquisition Editor: Mehdi Khosrowpour

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Decision making support systems : achievements, trends, and challenges for the new

decade / [edited by] Manuel Mora, Guisseppi A. Forgionne, Jatinder N.D. Gupta.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 1-59140-045-7 (hardcover)

1. Decision support systems. I. Mora, Manuel, 1961- II. Forgionne, Guisseppi A.,

1945- III. Gupta, Jatinder N.D., 1942-

T58.62 .D424 2002

658.4'03-dc21 2002027310

elSBN 1-59140-080-5

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Dedication

"/ dedicate my editorial work and chapter to my parents Dn.

Guittermo Mora (= ) and Dna. Magdalena Tavarez, and to my sisters

and brothers by their permanent support in my life; to my friends

Paola, Mabel, Rosario, Mary, Lolita and the priest Artemio Romo by

his kind friendship; to the professors Dr. Francisco Cervantes and

Dr. Ovsei Gelman by the trust on my current research endeavor; to

my colleagues co-editors Dr. G. Forgionne and Dr. J. Gupta by

sharing their experience with me in this editorial project; to my

professor at ITESM and UNAM by the strong academic preparation

taught me and to the UAA for providing me a nice place to work and

doing research. I thank also to my students by encouraging me to

improve my knowledge and to the eminent scientific Herbert A. Simon

(— ) by his kindness to advise me via email with key ideas in the

starting point of my doctoral dissertation. Finally I spiritually thank

to the Lord God and the S. V. Maria for the blessings to complete this

book and my doctoral dissertation on time. " Manuel Mora

"I dedicate my part of the book to my mother Mary for her support

and encouragement over the years and to my Lord and Savior Jesus

Christ for providing the spiritual and intellectual guidance to

complete the endeavor. " Guisseppi A. Forgionne

"I dedicate my work to my wife Harsh and the memory of my parents,

Babu Ram and Soshila Gupta, for their guidance, support, and

encouragement throughout my life and enabling me to undertake

and complete such tasks. In addition, I dedicate my work to

numerous friends and mentors who have shaped my thought

processes and provided continuous inspiration to do my best at all

times in my life. " Jatinder N. D. Gupta

September 2002

Decision Making

Support Systems:

Achievements, Trends and Challenges for

the New Decade

Table of Contents

Preface............................................................................................................ viii

Manuel Mora, Autonomous University of Aguascalientes, Mexico

Guisseppi A. Forgionne, University of Maryland

Baltimore County, USA Jatinder N. D. Gupta, University of

Alabama in Huntsville, USA

SECTION I: FOUNDATIONS AND ARCHITECTURES OF DMSS

Chapter I. An Architecture for the Integration of Decision Making

Support Functionalities ................................................................................... 1

Guisseppi A. Forgionne, University of

Maryland, Baltimore County, USA

Chapter II. Categorizing Decision Support Systems:

A Multidimensional Approach....................................................................... 2 0

D. J. Power, University of Northern Iowa, USA

Chapter III. Spatial Decision Support Systems ......................................... 28

Peter B. Keenan, University College Dublin, Ireland

Chapter IV. From Human Decision Making to DMSS Architecture ...... 40

Jean-Charles Pomerol, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, France

Frederic Adam, University College Cork, Ireland

SECTION II: APPLICATIONS OF DMSS

Chapter V. DSS for Rescheduling of Railway Services

Under Unplanned Events ............................................................................. 72

B. Adenso-Diaz, J. Tuya, M. J. Sudrez Cabal and M. Goitia-Fuertes,

Universidad of Oviedo, Spain

Chapter VI. Using Decision Support Systems to Help Policy Makers

Cope With Urban Transport Problems ...................................................... 86

Francesco Mazzeo Rinaldi and Donald Bain, European Commission

Joint Research Centre, Italy

Chapter VII. Procedural Cuing Using an Expert Support System ....... 101

Beverley G. Hope, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Rosemary H. Wild, California Polytechnic State University, USA

Chapter VIII. On the Ontology of a Decision Support System in

Health Informatics ....................................................................................... 120

Pirkko Nykdnen, National Research and Development Centre for

Welfare and Health, Finland

Chapter IX. Knowledge Management Support for Decision

Making in the Pharmaceutical Industry .................................................... 143

Rick Gibson, American University, USA

Chapter X. Customer Relationship Management at Harrah's

Entertainment .............................................................................................. 157

Hugh J. Watson, University of Georgia,

USA Linda Volonino, Canisius College,

USA

SECTION III: ADVANCED IT FOR DMSS

Chapter XI. Innovative Features in a Distributed Decision Support

System Based on Intelligent Agent Technology...................................... 174

Nicholas V. Findler, Arizona State University, USA

Chapter XII. Knowledge Warehouse: An Intelligent Analysis

Platform for Enhancing Management Decision Process......................... 193

Hamid Nemati, University of North Carolina at Greensboro,

USA Natalie Steiger and David Steiger, University of Maine,

USA Richard T. Herschel, St. Joseph's University, USA

Chapter XIII. Ripple Down Rules: A Technique for Acquiring

Knowledge .................................................................................................... 207

Debbie Richards, Macquarie University, Australia

Chapter XIV. Intelligent Support Framework of Group

Decision Making for Complex Business Systems ................................... 227

Charu Chandra, University of Michigan-Dearborn, USA

Alexander V. Smirnov, St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and

Automation of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Chapter XV. How Synthetic Characters Can Help Decision Making..239

Giuliano Pistolesi, ThinkinGolem, Italy

Chapter XVI. Using Narratives To Convey Knowledge in Decision

Making Support Systems............................................................................ 257

Lee A. Freeman, University of Michigan-Dearborn, USA

SECTION IV: EVALUATION AND MANAGEMENT OF DMSS

Chapter XVII. Quality Factors for DMSS Assessment:

An Application of Research Frameworks.................................................. 272

Harold W. Webb, University of South Florida,

USA Surya B. Yadav, Texas Tech University, USA

Chapter XVIII. Executive Information Systems in Spain:

A Study of Current Practices and Comparative Analysis ....................... 287

Jose L. Rolddn and Antonio Leal, University of Seville, Spain

Chapter XIX. Critical Factors in the Development of Executive

Systems—Leveraging the Dashboard Approach .................................... 305

Frederic Adam, University College Cork, Ireland

Jean-Charles Pomerol, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, France

Chapter XX. DMSS Implementation Research: A Conceptual

Analysis of the Contributions and Limitations of the Factor￾Based and Stage-Based Streams ................................................................ 331

Manuel Mora, Autonomous University of Aguascalientes, Mexico

Francisco Cervantes-Perez, Mexico Autonomous Institute of

Technology, Mexico Ovsei Gelman-Muravchik, National

Autonomous University of Mexico

(UNAM), Mexico Guisseppi A. Forgionne, University of Maryland,

Baltimore County,

USA Marcelo Mejia-Olvera and Alfredo Weitzenfeld-Reitel,

Mexico

Autonomous Institute of Technology, Mexico

SECTION V: CHALLENGES AND THE FUTURE OF DMSS

Chapter XXI. Evacuation Planning and Spatial Decision Making:

Designing Effective Spatial Decision Support Systems Through

Integration of Technologies ....................................................................... 358

F. N. de Silva, University of Aberdeen, Scotland

R. W. Eglese and M. Pidd, Lancaster University, England

Chapter XXII. Knowledge Management and Sharing.............................. 374

Bee K. Yew, Illinois Business Training Center, USA

WeiXiong Ho, Callisma Incorporated, USA Marvin

D. Troutt, Kent State University, USA

Chapter XXIII. Decision Making Support Systems: Achievements,

Challenges and Opportunities ................................................................... 392

Guisseppi A. Forgionne, University of Maryland, Baltimore

County, .

USA

Jatinder N. D. Gupta, University of Alabama in Huntsville, USA

Manuel Mora, Autonomous University of Aguascalientes, Mexico

About the Authors ....................................................................................... 403

Index.., ...414

Preface

Decision making support systems (DMSS) are information systems designed

to interactively support all phases of a user's decision making process. There are

various notions about all aspects of this definition. They can be for individual, or

group usage. Support can be direct or indirect. The decision making process can

be viewed in various ways. User-computer interaction can have a variety of di￾mensions. The information system offering the support can involve many technolo￾gies drawn from several disciplines, including accounting, cognitive science, com￾puter science, economics, engineering, management science, and statistics, among

others.

Because of the various perspectives and dimensions involved in decision mak￾ing support, the field has evolved in a variety of directions. These directions have

offered different focuses and contributions. While being effective and beneficial,

this disparity has created much confusion about the theoretical basis, architectural

form, support mechanisms, design and development strategies, evaluation approaches,

and managerial and organizational aspects of decision making support systems.

This book, which we have titled Decision Making Support Systems: Achieve￾ments, Trends and Challenges for the New Decade, is an attempt to alleviate

some of the confusion.

Thus, this book aims to demystify DMSS by considering various phases in￾volved in the development and implementation of them. The book's mission is to

present the core and state-of-the-art knowledge about decision making support

systems (DMSS). In the process, we hope to: (a) provide a compendium of quality

theoretical and applied papers on DMSS, (b) help diffuse scarce knowledge about

effective methods and strategies for successfully designing, developing, implement￾ing, and evaluating of DMSS, and (c) create an awareness among academicians

and practitioners about the relevance of DMSS in the current complex and dynamic

management environment.

The presentation is divided into five sections. In the first section, labeled

Foundations and Architectures of DMSS, we present the theoretical basis for

decision making support and the architectures that have been proposed to deliver

the theory in practice. There are four chapters in this first section.

In chapter 1, the main architectures of DMSS developed during the last 15

years are presented and their advantages and disadvantages for supporting the

decision making process are analyzed. Because none of the stand-alone DMSS

architectures supports the entire process in an integrated and complete manner, an

integrated architecture is proposed and discussed. Implications of DMSS architec-

tures for researchers and practitioners for leading to better design, development,

and robust implementation of DMSS are finally suggested.

Chapter 2 discusses a multidimensional framework for categorizing DMSS,

originally proposed by Power. This framework is based on four characteristics: 1)

the dominant component and driver of decision support, 2) the targeted users, 3) the

specific purpose of the system, and 4) the primary deployment technology. With

this framework, researchers and practitioners can improve their understanding of

DMSS and can establish a common framework for classification and discussion.

A special architecture of DMSS, called spatial decision support systems

(SDSS), is analyzed in chapter 3. Spatial applications represent an area of informa￾tion technology (IT) application with a significantly different history from the other

DMSS discussed in this book. However, the distinct contribution of SDSS to deci￾sion making is the ability of these systems to store and manipulate data based on its

spatial location. SDSS is useful in a wide range of government and business activi￾ties. Untapped potential uses to enhance the decision making process are sug￾gested finally.

The last chapter of this section, chapter 4, endeavors to provide a technical

definition of DSS relying upon human decision making. It is argued that although

there are good functional definitions of what DSS should do, an understandable

definition involving human reasoning is still lacking. Therefore, this chapter attempts

to bridge the gap between human reasoning and the understanding and design of

DSS. The chapter first presents a description of the human process of decision

making. A semiformal definition of DMSS is then developed and finally a brief

discussion about DSS architecture is analyzed. The ultimate goal of this chapter is

paving the way to better understanding and design of future DSS.

The second section of the book is called Applications of DMSS. As the

label indicates, this section presents new and unique applications of the decision

making support system concept. Six chapters detail these new DMSS applications.

In chapter 5, a real case of a DMSS to control routes of a regional railway

system is presented. Competitive pressures in all systems of transport for passen￾gers and goods require improved and effective use of all available resources to

keep service reliability and availability, which ultimately have a strong impact on the

quality perceived by users. Thus, the development of DMSS for this type of sce￾nario is especially interesting. This chapter reports design issues and implementa￾tion experiences gained during its development. It also shows that DMSS are useful

tools for mission-critical online processes.

Another real application of a DSS in the context of urban transportation, called

Navigate UTOPIA, is reported in chapter 6. This area is particularly well suited to

be supported by a DMSS through a multi-criteria approach, given the complexity

and interaction involved with a series of economic, ecological, social, and political

subsystems and the large number of stakeholders involved. In addition to the real￾ized capabilities of Navigate UTOPIA, the chapter also focuses on the user be￾havioral issues related to its development. Learned lessons about the intense inter-

XI

action with potential DSS users during the DSS construction phase, particularly

when these include stakeholders with limited technical training, are discussed.

Chapter 7 describes the development of an expert support system oriented to

quality management for a regional bank. This chapter shows that expert systems

technology is still useful. Its technical construction is possible through a structured

development process. The DMSS assists the teams to determine which problems

to address and what data to collect in order to incrementally improve the business

processes of the bank. For that reason, the DMSS provides decision support, inter￾active training and expert advice.

In chapter 8, a specific DMSS tool for the creation of guidelines for better

DMSS in the domain of health informatics is reported. For that reason, this chapter

presents an extended ontology for a DMSS founded on related research in informa￾tion systems and artificial intelligence and on several case studies in health

informatics. The ontology explicates relevant constructs and presents a vocabulary

for a DMSS. It also emphasizes the need to cover environmental and contextual

variables as an integral part of decision support systems development and evalua￾tion methodologies. With the inclusion of specific domain, application, and knowl￾edge aspects, it is claimed that more successful systems could be developed. How￾ever, other complications arise. This chapter discusses these complications and

their managerial and practical implications.

An exploratory analysis of how knowledge management (KM) practices can

enhance the decision-making process in pharmaceutical firms is reported in chapter

9. The complexity of the pharmaceutical industry, from the hard science of drug

research and development to the psychology of marketing, places special decision

making demands on managers. Since knowledge is considered a core resource to

make good decisions, and pharmaceutical firms rely on innovation and collaboration

activities that are knowledge intensive activities, then, KM becomes an essential

practice for DMSS development.

Chapter 10 reports a case study of how DMSS support a leader organization

in the entertainment industry. The core advanced IT of the DMSS presented is

data warehousing (DW), which could be considered to be the most important de￾velopment in decision support over the last decade. DW is being used to support

many important organizational strategies and initiatives, such as the balanced score

card, electronic commerce (both B2C and B2B), and customer relationship man￾agement (CRM). CRM is designed to attract new customers, enhance relation￾ships with existing customers, and reduce customer attrition. This case describes

how the organization has deployed DW and DMSS to support their business strat￾egy. Special attention is given to the use of IT to support "closed loop marketing."

The impacts of IT-based initiatives are discussed. Finally future directions and

lessons learned are given.

The third section of the book is titled Advanced IT for DMSS. This section

presents state-of-the-art information technologies that have been developed to im￾prove the efficiency and effectiveness of decision making support systems. Some

XII

of the technologies are variations on existing hardware and software concepts.

Others are new, unique, or innovative. These advanced IT developments are of￾fered in six (6) separate chapters.

In chapter 11, a large-scale and multiyear project in the military context based

on multiagent systems, called SENTINEL, is described. It was designed to comput￾erize the strategic and tactical planning processes of the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG).

This large-scale project required the creation of several distributed decision support

systems (DDSS) for human participants acting at different levels of the USCG

hierarchy. This chapter describes the objectives, the peculiarities, and the con￾straints of the task environment, as well as the solution to some problems that are

fundamental and ubiquitous in many real-time, spatially and temporally distributed

multiagent systems.

In chapter 12, a conceptual knowledge warehouse architecture is posed for

the extraction, storage, analysis and understanding of explicit knowledge. Knowl￾edge warehouses (KW), similar to the data warehouses, could provide knowledge

and support to the entire enterprise decision making process. The proposed KW

architecture consists of an object-oriented knowledge base management system

module (OO-KBMS), a knowledge analysis workbench, and a communication

manager. The proposed KW architecture is unique in that it proposes support for all

four phases of the knowledge spiral in a decision support system, especially in

model-based decision support. Finally, practitioner and research implications are

reported.

Chapter 13 reports a technique to develop expert systems (ES) called ripple

down rules (RDR). This chapter shows that an ES can generate negative percep￾tions in the practitioner and academic community. While ES had shortcomings,

there are successes and ES research is alive. A reason for the limited use of ES is

reported as the high complexity for its development and in particular due to the

knowledge acquisition phase. Consequently this chapter describes a knowledge

representation and acquisition technique, i.e., RDR, that tackles head-on the limita￾tions of first-generation ES while avoiding some of the new problems introduced in

second-generation ES. Finally, emerging trends and future directions ofES research

are given.

A general information framework of e-management for knowledge-based

modeling of customer responsive systems is reported in chapter 14. This frame￾work integrates intelligent information support, group decision making, and agree￾ment modeling for a supply chain network. Through the proposed framework, it is

possible to experiment with various types of behavior patterns that may emerge

through interaction of virtual enterprise members and apply lessons learned in de￾veloping robust e-management models. Global firms that compete in a business

environment based on complex collaborative relationships need frameworks to de￾ploy adequately the underlying information technology infrastructure to support their

business strategies. This chapter offers a conceptual mechanism for providing such

support.

Xlll

Anew kind of DMSS based on synthetic characters is reported in chapter 15.

Synthetic characters are intelligent agents able to show typical human-like behavior

by means of natural language interaction. This chapter shows how a particular

highly interactive kind of intelligent agent, i.e., the synthetic characters, can support

the decision making process. It also discusses general characteristics of a decision

making model and the architecture and processing flow of DEMON

(DEcision-Making OrgaNizer), a decision support agent currently under

development. Finally, research and practical implications are given.

In Chapter 16, a novel advanced IT approach is presented: the

narrative-based information systems (NBIS) approach. Since DMSS are focused

on improving the effectiveness of the decision making process and are based on the

accuracy of the resulting information, the presentation language of a DMSS, a

part of the user interface, is critical for successful DMSS operation. Narratives

and stories could be incorporated to achieve greater meaning and understanding of

the presentation language of a DMSS. A conceptual model of NBIS is examined

and used to outline areas for further research. Finally, theoretical and practical

implications for DMSS developments are discussed.

The fourth section of the book is called Evaluation and Management of

DMSS. This section offers some new or innovative ways to evaluate the effective￾ness of decision making support systems. This section also presents managerial

issues that are created or resolved by the implementation of these systems. Four

chapters are used to present the material.

Chapter 17 reports a conceptual scheme called the decision support systems

research (DSSR) framework. The DSSR framework was developed to integrate

theoretical constructs from various information systems areas into a coherent theme

with the objective to improve the quality of the DMSS. This DSSR framework can

be used as the basis for the identification and selection of a hierarchy of factors

potentially affecting the quality of DMSS development. The DSSR framework is

used in tandem with the generic software quality metrics framework specified in

the IEEE Standard 1061-1992. The usage of these frameworks to identify system

quality factors is demonstrated in the context of military research and development

projects.

In chapter 18, a national-based descriptive study on the usage and practices

of executive information systems (EIS) is reported. EIS have been widely used in

multinational organizations located in highly developed nations. In emergent econo￾mies, their usage is still limited. This chapter reports the findings from a survey

study conducted in an emergent economy country. Following the work line mani￾fested in the preceding research, this chapter aims at undertaking a comparative

analysis between the reported situation of EIS and the results obtained in similar

descriptive studies.

Based on the Rockart's critical success factor (CSF) approach, chapter 19

puts forward a practical method to guide the development of executive information

systems (EIS) in organizations. This method extends the current theory of EIS by

XIV

using the concept of the dashboard of information to show how an

enterprise-wide approach to the development of more effective decision support for

managers can deliver tangible benefits without requiring the time-consuming and

single-decision focus of the traditional development methods. This method also

attempts to leverage the latest computing technologies now available for the

development of such systems, notably graphical user interfaces (GUI), data

warehousing (DW) and OLAP. The proposed approach is illustrated by examples

of dashboard developments, which show how managers should carry out the

analysis and development of such a system in their own organizations, business

units or functional areas.

In chapter 20, an extensive literature review of the main contributions and

limitations of the factor-based (FB) and stage-based (SB) approaches conducted in

the DMSS implementation research is presented. It is argued that despite the claimed

benefits of stand-alone and integrated DMSS, the rate of implementation failures is

still high. Therefore, in practice, the number of DMSS installed and adequately

used has been far less than expected. Under the premise that DMSS implementa￾tion is a process of high complexity, it is claimed that FB and SB approaches must

be complemented with other research approaches in order to capture the full com￾plexity of the whole phenomenon. The authors propose the systems approach as

this emergent research methodology. Finally, conclusions and directions for further

research are given.

The fifth, and last, section is titled Challenges and the Future of DMSS. As

the title suggests, this last section identifies key challenges for management, orga￾nizations, and other entities that are presented by decision making support systems.

The section also discusses the main trends in DMSS research and practice. A

unique feature of this last section is that it reports the opinions of leading DMSS

researchers and practitioners regarding the challenges and opportunities that exist

in the field.

Chapter 21 describes a study of how two advanced technologies, simulation

and geographic information systems, can be integrated to support a critical complex

management process like evacuation and emergency planning and management.

The aim is to provide decision support for emergency prevention or mitigation,

response and recovery. At present, this process widely relies on computer-aided

emergency management systems which gather and analyze information and data

on hazardous emissions, geological activity, meteorology, demography, and geogra￾phy. Therefore, deployment of advanced IT for DMSS is attractive but it is also

complex. This chapter identifies and analyzes the challenging issues faced in using

the above two technologies. It focuses on the behavioral and decision making pro￾cesses of the various players in the evacuation system, logistics, generating realistic

scenarios for testing out contingency plans, and the validation of such

computer-based decision support tools. Future trends in technology and the evolution

of emergency planning and management processes are also discussed.

Based on Kant, Hegel, Locke and Liebnitz mental models, chapter 22 reviews

the inquiring models with a view to provide an analytical framework for knowledge

creating and sharing activities. Knowledge management (KM) has been identified