Đánh giá tăng trưởng và chuyển dịch cơ cấu kinh tế các vùng đến 2020

NGHIEN cCru -TRAO D6 I

Danh gia tang trirong va chuyen djch

CO cau kinh te cac vung den 2020

T ren thuc te'. cdn nhieu y

kie'n vi dinh gii (du bio)

ting trudng vi chuyin dich

CO cau GDP trong quy hoach phat

trien kinh ti - xa hdi. Cd y kidn cho

rang, cd qui nhiiu ydu td bit dinh

ddi vdi du bao dai han, vi thd khdng

nen dua ra muc tieu tang vi chuyin

dich CO caii GDP trong quy hoach.

Theo quan diim cua tie gii, thi nen

dinh gii tang trucmg va dich chuyin

CO cau kinh te (GDP). Bdi vl, quy

hoach hiiu ndm na li cdng cu ciuin

ly ciia Nlii nudc can thiep vao phan

bd lire lucmg san xuit di dat dugc

muc tieu di dinh. Dd'i vdi nudc ta,

muc lieu tang trudng va chuyin dich

CO ciu kinh td li rit cin thiet, vl

GDP binh quan diu ngudi cdn Ihip

so vdi cac nudc Irong khu vuc, mat

khac dich chuyin co ciu kinh td la

giai phip quan trgng di tang GDP,

tao ra viec lam va lang thu nhap.

•Song each danh gia GDP cho quy

hoach cin dugc ddi mdi. Tu kinh

nghiem thirc id, chung ta phii dinh

gia GDP theo qiuui diim he thdng,

dim bao tdng GDP. ca ciii ng;iiih va

CO ca'u xiing bang con sd dinh gia

cluing cua ca nucic. Trong bdi canh

killing hoing kinh tc tai chinh nhu

hien nay, du bao kinh te hang nam cl.i

lit khd. chua ndi Icii du bio dai h;ui

hang chuc nam. Vi vay, danh gii

lang tiudng \'a co ciu GDP ddn nam

2020 d day dugc hidu la du bao

chinh tic, xuat phit tu muc tieu cin

dat \'io nam 2020, sau dd dinh gia

mttc do kha thi ciia cac ydu id diu

vao Iren cac vimg kinh ti - xi hoi.

De thuc hicn dugc muc tieu tren,

Irudc khi phin tich va danh gia cdn

diiu chinh dtt lieu cic vung cho phii

hgp vdi con sd nay cua c i nudc, sau

khi diiu chinb dtt lieu, dinh gii

tang GDP vi chuyin dich ca ciu

dua vao danh gia kha ning boat

dgng ciia cic khu cdng nghiep, sue

chtta phat triin ndng nghiep vi dich

VII, ddng thdi kdt hap vdi y kien

chuyen gia di hieu chinh. Sau diy

la cic kdt qua phin tich vi dinh gii

GDP ddn 2020 cho cac vttng.

Dieu chinh du lieu cac vung

Hicn nay cd nhiiu bd du lieu vi

GDP cua cac vung nhu GDP quy

hoach, GDP thd'ng ke va GDP kd

hoach. Tuy ngudn gdc khic nhau,

song cic bd du lieu vi GDP cd

chung mgt dac diim, dd Ii tdng

GDP ciia cic tinh Idn hon con so

Ihdng ke chinh Ihttc ciia c i nudc.

GDP tinh theo gia thuc td cua cic

tinh khi sit vdi con sd thd'ng ke c i

nudc, song co ciu GDP theo nginh

lai khac nhau kha xa. Trong dd, ty

trgng GDP ndng nghiep cgng lai cua

c:ic tinh thap hon nhiiu so vdi c i

ThS. NGUYEN CONG MY

Vien Chien luqc phdt then

nuac, ty trgng cdng nghiep vi dich

vu lai cao hon c i nucic.

Hien nay chua cd mdt quy trinh

diiu cbinh so lieu hao cd tinh thuyet

phuc, d diy chgn quy trinh hai

budc. Mgt la loai trucic sai sdngiu

nhien bing quy tic 3 sigma ciia

toin thd'ng kd. Hai la, sau khi diiu

chinh sai sd ngiu nhien, phan sai sd

cdn lai dugc diiu chlnh Iheo md

hinh tuyeii tinh, chia phin sai sd

cdn lai theo trgng so ciia cac viing.

Ket qua li tdng GDP cua cac vung

bing con sd nay cua ca nudc, song

phuong phip diiu chinh tuye'n tinh

cd nhugc diim li miy mde, mang

tinh co bgc. Vi viy, sau khi diiu

chinh cin tham vin y kie'n cua

chuyen gia de tinh chlnh lai dtt lieu.

Ttt thirc td diiu chinh du lieu cho

thi'y diy la viec lam can Ihiii, bdi vi

ctt theo xu the nhu nhung nam gin

day, thi tdng GDP ciia cac linh chi

sau vii nam nua se gip nhiiu lin

GDP ca nudc. Ne'u khdng cd cac

So 18/2009

is

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