computer

This speech is about computer technology without being too difficult. I would like

you to imagine the following scenario (viễn cảnh). You take a piece of paper—it doesn’t

matter how big or how thick—and you fold it in two(in half) and you fold it in two again.

After 7 or 8 folds, you will be unable to continue because the paper then will be as thick

as a book. If you could get as far as 20 folds, the paper would be as tall as a house. If you

could get to 40 folds you would fill the space between the moon and the earth. That is

what is known in mathematics as exponential growth (sự tăng theo số mũ). It is almost

exclusively used in math because in nature exponential growth doesn’t last for very long.

Over the last 30 years the manufacturers of computers have truly introduced

exponential improvements to their products. It’s as if the electronic engineers have

managed to fold that piece of paper about 15 times. However, all good things must come

to an end. It would appear that we’re getting close to the limits of today’s computer

technology. Let me explain why, using the example of Britain railway system as an

illustration. In 1830 there were just 37 kms of track. Ten years later, twice as much, and

every 10 years, for the next 60 years, the amount doubled. At that rate, a forecaster in the

19 century might have expected that by today there would be track all over the country.

But that’s not the case. The point was reached where the cost of laying track to small

villages could not be recovered by the carrying of persons and goods on that line. So,

economic forces reached a point of equilibrium (balance). And, a similar combination of

economic and physical factors is likely to bring an end to the improvements which have

been introduced into computer chips.

To go back to the image I used at the beginning of folding paper, each fold in the

technology paper(metaphor) is increasingly expensive and difficult to engineer. Silicon

chips have space limits and every time you increase the capacity (công suất) of the

computer, you have to reduce the size of the components. And, although computers use

very little electricity, a small current(electrical current) going through a tiny component

generates a great amount of heat which is very difficult to evacuate(get rid of safely).