Climate Management Issues: Economics, Sociology, and Politics

Climate Management

Issues

Economics, Sociology, and Politics

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Climate Management

Issues

Julie Kerr Gines

Economics, Sociology, and Politics

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CRC Press

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v

Contents

Author.................................................................................................................... xiii

Introduction............................................................................................................xv

1 The Earth’s Climate System..........................................................................1

Overview............................................................................................................1

Introduction.......................................................................................................2

Development......................................................................................................3

What Is Climate Change?...........................................................................4

The Global System Concept........................................................................7

The Atmosphere’s Structure.......................................................................8

The Carbon Cycle: Natural versus Human Amplification.................. 10

The Hydrologic Cycle and the Relationships between the Land,

Ocean, and Atmosphere............................................................................12

Global Energy Balance.............................................................................. 15

Rates of Change.......................................................................................... 17

Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Change..................................... 18

Extreme Weather........................................................................................ 21

The Role of Ocean Circulation in Climate Change............................... 24

The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt and Consequences of

Destabilization: Abrupt Climate Change...............................................27

Effects of Sea-Level Rise............................................................................29

Future Projections......................................................................................30

Conclusions...................................................................................................... 31

Discussion........................................................................................................34

References........................................................................................................35

Suggested Reading......................................................................................... 37

2 The Role of Greenhouse Gases...................................................................39

Overview..........................................................................................................39

Introduction.....................................................................................................40

Development....................................................................................................40

Radiation Transmission............................................................................ 41

The Natural and Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.....................................42

Radiative Forcing.......................................................................................46

The Earth’s Energy Balance......................................................................47

Greenhouse Gases......................................................................................48

Climate Change Potential.........................................................................50

Carbon Sequestration................................................................................ 52

Sinks and Sources......................................................................................53

Types of Carbon Sequestration................................................................58

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Impacts of Deforestation...........................................................................60

Anthropogenic Causes and Effects: Carbon Footprints...................... 62

Areas Most at Risk.....................................................................................65

Fossil Fuels and Climate Change............................................................66

The New Carbon Balance: Summing It All Up.....................................68

The Concern about Coal Emissions.........................................................72

Health Issues Associated with Climate Change................................... 74

Contributors to Climate Change and Pollution.....................................80

Key Impacts................................................................................................ 81

Conclusions......................................................................................................83

Discussion........................................................................................................83

References........................................................................................................84

Suggested Reading.........................................................................................88

3 Climate Change and Its Effect on Ecosystems........................................89

Overview..........................................................................................................89

Introduction.....................................................................................................90

Development....................................................................................................90

The Results of Climate Change on Ecosystems.....................................95

Impacts to Forests......................................................................................96

Impacts to Rangelands, Grasslands, and Prairies............................... 101

Impacts on Polar Ecosystems................................................................. 104

Impacts to Desert Ecosystems................................................................ 108

Desertification...................................................................................... 110

Heat Waves........................................................................................... 115

Wildfire................................................................................................. 117

Mountain Ecosystems in Danger Worldwide...................................... 118

Lack of Water Storage......................................................................... 120

Glaciers and Flooding........................................................................ 120

Challenges in Alpine Regions........................................................... 121

Challenges in Marine Environments....................................................122

Temperate Marine Environments.....................................................122

The Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Locations....................122

Sea-Level Rise......................................................................................123

The Effects of Climate Change on Open Oceans........................... 124

Tropical Marine Environments......................................................... 124

Fragile Ecosystems: Reefs and Corals..............................................125

Climate Change Stress to Coral Reefs..............................................125

Freshwater Environments.................................................................. 126

IPCC Assessment................................................................................ 127

Conclusion..................................................................................................... 127

Discussion...................................................................................................... 128

References...................................................................................................... 129

Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 133

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Contents vii

4 The Inception of Climate Change Management................................... 135

Overview........................................................................................................ 135

Introduction................................................................................................... 136

Development.................................................................................................. 136

The Montreal Protocol: A Working Model........................................... 136

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change and the Kyoto Protocol............................................................. 139

The UNFCCC............................................................................................ 139

The Kyoto Protocol................................................................................... 141

The U.S. Response and International Reactions.................................. 144

The G8........................................................................................................ 149

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.............................. 150

Working Group I................................................................................. 151

Working Group II................................................................................ 152

Working Group III............................................................................... 153

IPCC Reports............................................................................................ 154

Working Group I Report: The Physical Science Basis.................... 154

Working Group II Report: Impacts, Adaptation,

and Vulnerability................................................................................ 156

Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change........................ 158

The Bali Conference (2007)..................................................................... 159

Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (2009)................................ 161

Cancun Convention (2010)...................................................................... 163

Bangkok (2011).......................................................................................... 165

Conclusions.................................................................................................... 166

Discussion...................................................................................................... 167

References...................................................................................................... 168

Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 169

5 Sociological Connections to Climate Change....................................... 171

Overview........................................................................................................ 171

Introduction................................................................................................... 172

Development.................................................................................................. 172

The Environment and Sociology........................................................... 172

The Need for Biodiversity....................................................................... 182

Environmental Movements: The Classic Case of Earth Day............. 183

The Ramifications of Climate Change on Society............................... 185

Climate Justice.......................................................................................... 186

Immigration Issues.................................................................................. 187

One Explanation to Encourage Going Green....................................... 188

Other Social Factors to Consider........................................................... 189

Conclusions.................................................................................................... 192

Discussion...................................................................................................... 193

References...................................................................................................... 194

Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 195

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6 Human Psychology and the Media.......................................................... 197

Overview........................................................................................................ 197

Introduction................................................................................................... 197

Development.................................................................................................. 198

Climate Change, Human Psychology, Cultural Values,

and the Media........................................................................................... 198

The Power of the Media.......................................................................... 201

Keeping a Journalistic Balance.............................................................. 202

Scientists’ Mindsets and Data Change.................................................205

The Occasional Data Flaw...................................................................... 207

Conclusions....................................................................................................209

Discussion...................................................................................................... 210

References...................................................................................................... 211

Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 212

7 The Role of International Organizations............................................... 213

Overview........................................................................................................ 213

Introduction................................................................................................... 213

Development.................................................................................................. 214

The Evolution of International Cooperation........................................ 214

The Role of International Organizations.............................................. 216

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership................. 216

European Climate Change Programme.......................................... 217

International Carbon Action Partnership........................................ 219

The Progress of Individual Countries...................................................220

Iceland................................................................................................... 221

Norway.................................................................................................225

Japan......................................................................................................225

Nations Working toward Sustainability...............................................226

Conclusions....................................................................................................228

Discussion......................................................................................................229

References......................................................................................................229

Suggested Reading.......................................................................................230

8 The Political Arena......................................................................................233

Overview........................................................................................................233

Introduction...................................................................................................233

Development..................................................................................................234

The Current Political Climate in the United States.............................234

President Obama’s Outlook on Climate Change at Election.............236

The Beginnings of Change in Legislation............................................ 239

Current Executive Branch Action.......................................................... 241

BACT Guidance................................................................................... 242

The Tailoring Rule............................................................................... 243

Endangerment Finding...................................................................... 243

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Contents ix

Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule..................................244

Federal Vehicle Standards..................................................................244

Renewable Fuel Standard................................................................... 245

Current Congressional Action............................................................... 247

Congressional Input and Contributions toward Climate Change

Legislation with Obama.......................................................................... 249

The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009................. 249

Past Congressional Input and Contributions toward Climate

Change Legislation.................................................................................. 251

The Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act of 2007.................. 252

The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2008............................... 252

The International Political Arena .........................................................255

Policies in Key Countries........................................................................255

Conclusions....................................................................................................259

Discussion......................................................................................................260

References...................................................................................................... 261

Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 262

9 Sociopolitical Impacts of Climate Change.............................................265

Overview........................................................................................................265

Introduction...................................................................................................265

Development..................................................................................................266

Climate Change, National Security, and Terrorism............................266

Climate Change, Inaction, and War......................................................272

Climate Change, Conflict, and State Fragility..................................... 273

The Concept of Climate Justice and Equity.........................................277

Conclusions.................................................................................................... 278

Discussion...................................................................................................... 279

References......................................................................................................280

Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 281

10 Military Issues and Climate Change......................................................283

Overview........................................................................................................283

Introduction...................................................................................................283

Development..................................................................................................285

Climate Change and Military Effectiveness........................................285

The Pentagon Takes the Lead on Cutting Back on Fossil Fuels........288

DoD Embraces Green Energy: Turning Goals into Examples...........289

Conclusions.................................................................................................... 291

Discussion...................................................................................................... 292

References...................................................................................................... 293

Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 294

11 Economics of Climate Change and Socioeconomic Implications..... 297

Overview........................................................................................................ 297

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Introduction................................................................................................... 297

Development.................................................................................................. 298

Climate Change and Economic Considerations.................................. 298

Economic Impacts of Drought and Desertification.............................302

The Fishing and Forestry Industries.....................................................304

Changes in Monsoon Patterns...............................................................306

Agriculture and Food Production.........................................................308

Impacts to the Recreation and Tourism Industry............................... 312

Healthcare and Labor-Related Impacts................................................ 315

Transportation and Energy Considerations......................................... 320

Resulting Insurance Costs and Impacts...............................................322

The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change...................... 328

Meeting the Challenges of Climate Impacts........................................ 332

Conclusions....................................................................................................336

Discussion......................................................................................................336

References......................................................................................................338

Suggested Reading.......................................................................................343

12 The Economics of Mitigation Options....................................................345

Overview........................................................................................................345

Introduction...................................................................................................345

Development..................................................................................................346

Cap and Trade..........................................................................................346

Project-Based Markets.............................................................................347

Allowance-Based Markets......................................................................348

The Economics of Cap and Trade..........................................................350

Economics of Mitigation......................................................................... 351

Carbon Capture and Storage..................................................................353

Geological Formation Sequestration.....................................................356

Ocean Sequestration................................................................................359

Adaptation Strategies..............................................................................363

Conclusions....................................................................................................366

Discussion...................................................................................................... 367

References......................................................................................................368

Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 370

13 Professional Guidance: Climate Research, Modeling,

and Data Analysis....................................................................................... 371

Overview........................................................................................................ 371

Introduction................................................................................................... 371

Development.................................................................................................. 372

Climate Change Research....................................................................... 372

Climate Modeling.................................................................................... 374

The Modeling Challenge: A Brief History........................................... 374

Fundamentals of Climate Modeling..................................................... 376

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Contents xi

The Physics of Modeling......................................................................... 376

Simplifying the Climate System............................................................377

Modeling the Climate Response............................................................ 378

Types of Climate Models........................................................................380

Testing a Model: Modeling Trouble Spots............................................ 381

Confidence and Validation.....................................................................383

Modeling Uncertainties and Challenges..............................................383

Solar Variability...................................................................................383

Aerosols................................................................................................384

Clouds...................................................................................................384

Nature’s Inherent Unruly Tendencies..............................................386

Error Amplification.................................................................................. 387

Modeling Uncertainties and Drawbacks.............................................. 387

Other Unknowns.....................................................................................389

Two Case Studies.....................................................................................390

Case Study 1: Forest Inventory and Species Invasion.................... 391

Case Study 2: Monitoring Rangelands and Drought..................... 396

Conclusions....................................................................................................400

Discussion...................................................................................................... 401

References...................................................................................................... 401

Suggested Reading.......................................................................................402

14 The Clock Is Ticking: Changing for the Benefit of Future

Generations...................................................................................................403

Overview........................................................................................................403

Introduction...................................................................................................403

Development..................................................................................................404

A Look toward the Future......................................................................404

Winners and Losers.................................................................................406

New Technologies....................................................................................409

The Final Choice....................................................................................... 412

Conclusions.................................................................................................... 412

Discussion...................................................................................................... 413

References...................................................................................................... 413

Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 414

Appendix.............................................................................................................. 415

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC) Member Nations........................................................ 415

Glossary................................................................................................................ 421

Index......................................................................................................................427

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xiii

Author

Julie Kerr Gines has been an earth scientist for more than 34 years, pro￾moting a healthier and better-managed environment. She holds a PhD in

earth science with an emphasis in remote sensing satellite technology from

the University of Utah and has dealt with the hands-on applications of

resource and climate change management, focusing on the delicate balance

of the multifaceted issues involving the political, economic, and sociologi￾cal components in both short- and long-term applications with real-world

ramifications. She has been involved specifically with projects such as for￾est management, classification and monitoring of desertification, rangeland

change detection and management, vegetation inventory and health assess￾ment, and land-use change.

Dr. Gines approaches the subject with a background uniquely blended

with conservation and land-use management expertise with the U.S. Bureau

of Land Management, military applications with the U.S. Air Force, and uni￾versity-based research. She has also had environmental experience serving

in the professional community as the president of the Intermountain Chapter

of the American Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing and spent

years dedicated to the promotion of a healthier environment through par￾ticipation with various environmental groups. The prolific author has pub￾lished more than 23 books, many of which are focused on environmental

topics such as global warming, climate change management, conservation

of natural resources, green living, and the earth sciences.

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