Chính sách tỷ giá: Tâm điểm vĩ mô 2010

c sd 02 (79)-2010 THONG TIN SI/KIEN

Chinh sach ty gia: Tam diem vT mo 2010

Tjk Ta w 2009 cd the coi Id ndm "tien te " tgi Viet Nam. Ty gid USD/VND tdng mgnh, nhap

I % / sieu cao, lam phdt dffng trffdc dp lffc tdng trd Igi vdo ndm 2010, khan hiem cue bd USD,

X T gid vdng sdt ndng, ldi sud't ngdn hdng len kich trdn... Nhffng Men tffdng ndy ndi len dieu

gi? Lieu cdc Men tffpng tren cd lap Igi trong ndm 2010? Cdc cdquan qudn ly cdn Iffu tdm gi trong

chinh sdch tien te trong ndm 2010?Ty gid chinh thffc giffa USD vd VND trong ndm 2009 dd trdi

qua hai lan dieu chinh, mdt lan vdo thdng 3 (+2%) do tdng bien do giao dich tff 3% len 5% vd lan

gdn nhd't Id vdo thdng 11 (+3,4%). Mac du sau mdi lan dieu chinh, ty gid chinh thffc deu len kich

trdn nhffng ty gid tren thi trffdng khdng chinh thffc (ty gid thi trffdng tff do) vdn ludn ndm ngodi

Men dp cho phep cua Ngdn hdng Nhd niidc.Tren thffc te, dieu ndy dd xdy ra tff ddu ndm tdi nay,

cho thdy thi trffdng ngogi hdi ludn cdng thdng.

Nguyen nhan cua tinh tinh trang tham hut can can I .sang tham hut nang trong hai

trang cang thing ty gia thanh toan ngay mot trd nen quy tie'p theo (Ian lUdt la -2,4

VND da chiu sire ep trdm trong? D£U tien, trang va-3,5 ty USD).

giam gia so vdi USD trong ^^^' "l^^^ '^'^" f ^ ^''«"? ^"y TCr sd' lieu v^ can can

„-.,,>,• • n • c ^- 4' 1/2009 da chuyen thanh nhap ,, , , ^ > -- .u--

mot thdi gian dai. So vdi dau ^ ' thanh toan. co the thay rang

oAm \/NTr-v -I- .- •' sieu nang trong quy 2 va quy .,- . . - - .^. , , ,

nam 2007, VND da tang gia • ^ & w .^ H } \h'dm hut can can tai khoan

iu •' on^y <,• iTcnv.' u 3 khi cac bien phcip kich thich - i • ' .. '? *.^ .v ^^

khoang 20% so vdi USD tinh , • i i ^ vang lai co the du^dc bu dap

^, ,•. •- . •» J ,. .. kinh te du'dc Chinh phu trien -.- .. . - .-)%••-

theo ty gia hieu dung thirc, • ' gan nhir hoan toan bdi thang

A' " u- u' I 1- khai. Thu'c ra nguy cd nhap ,. , ^- ,' ,, ,/,,^

trong do nguyen nhan chinh la ., du^ trong nguon von chinh thiTc

A 1 u't fA 1 - r-r)T\ A sieu da du'dc canh bdo tir nu'dc -».,. - /u -» r-rM T-T^T

do lam phat (do bang CPI) d va tir nhan (bao gom FDI, FPI

,,.., «, ^ u • -.^ onm khi thirc hien chinh sach kich - ,- . ,. ,, •. r^-^

Viet Nam trong hai nam 2007 • • , va tin dung thu^dng mai). Dieu

V TAAo '-. r» 1 ..V. 1- thich, ly do la VI ca hoat ddng . ., ' , ... ,, ', ^ ,

va 2008 rat cao. lan mdt la , i ^ _ ; nay cung cd nghia la tham hut

,„„.„ . „„,„ „ . 1 .s - 1- san xuat va tieu dung cua Viet , - . . ^ •> ,, »

12,7% va 20%. Dang Uru y la . ^ , : can can thanh toan cua Viet

innn - i- /^DT Nam dcu phu thuoc rat uhicu ^, ,. , ,,- ,, , .

trong nam 2009, mac du CFl ' •, Nam la do phan khong cd

i, <, *i -' //- cir/\ 1 .. '.• vao nhap khau, them vao dd . •> .. . - - ^ • .. •>

d mirc thap (6,52%) nhUng sue ,^ . , . ... , ., "^n trong can can tai khoan

^ • •' •' \;Mn> ' A ,, VND lai bi dinh gia cao so vdi ,v. , , , .

6p giam gia VND van aUdc ' • , . , tai chinh gay ra.

, . ,,- ... . ^.- . , USD nen he qua tat yeu (mac

duy tn, lan nay la do tham hut - ^ •' , : ,,.- ^.- ^^ •..,- . / . , , , ,,,. .• du khdng mong mudn) cua Van de nam d cho trong

can can thanh toan. Nhm vao '^^ , , , , „K- -M W , u- -. - u^

,, ,.. .,.;<,, - . ~ nhane bien phap kich thich P"^" khong cd ban nay thi

so heu, CO the thay can can _. •; ^ • / / , , , . .^ . , , . , ,' , - ,,-/ XT A~ tien teva ngan sach la gia tang ^^i so va thieu sot lai qud

thanh todn cua Viet Nam da , . ',, ^^ ^ ,, i/v„ i,u-' - ••>• .w i, ^ y.

, ,, . ^^^-, nhap kliau. Trong khi nhap Idn, khien viec giai thich tinh

thang dir Idn trong nam 2007 v ' , .,-,•,. .

i m •' iiQn\ h " ^^^^ ^^"8 ^"^ ^^^ "^"''^ tiling t^ng tham hut cua can can

(+10.2 ty UbU),^ tuy^ nnien ^^^^^^ ^^^ USD/thdng trong thanh todn trd nen khd khan, nguye tha bhd+mtran a 0, ; au i,m ca^cMu 5h than hu . tron nvny, nhada diTdUSD uci,,,^ t f-5, gu di und na c a n,) .tr 7 vna Tm t n^ a^ma 200 y ld^. , chuye US 2(J09 oY la i X ^l8 ch Daa nhirn m ti^ gia n'. tron ch Casan i comunog ,"h^^^.,, ^ ^^* •^e." ^Ta 1^(+0,1 g .-,,. , ^ qu ^,^. p ch .y ^j ^^ 32 ^^^^,_ ^ ^ t^ ^,^ th ,g_ fy' nghie iicn USD i xua ^^^ . ^ ^^^j.t khau ).^ ^^ .jj^2n tron ^n - ^.^^^,^ ^' cd ,.. ^^^,_ g, kie g qu j^ di u^ Td y nhr.fir.ht. u^T. ^^^ Khch ^^. von i chfn o ^^ ^ tin g ^.^^^^ ^.^ cuh^h,i tran a , ^,doan k th ^ ^^,^^^ ^ .ei ^^,^^,tnrdng g , tod nah nghie ^,^^ y i l^n ,^ , a ^. i d ^.^ ^ o \^-\ p su-ke^. diro ^^^^ , c t 1^^.