Bắt mạch giá cả - lạm phát năm 2011

Mach dap gia ca-lam phat

2011

Theo Tdng cue Thd'ng ke, CPI

thang 2/2011 eua ca nudc da tang

tdi 2,09% so vdi thang 1 (trong

dd, TP.HCM tang 1,61% va TP.Ha

Ndi tang 1,98 %) vd tang 3,78%

so vdi ciing ky nam 2010. Cd 10

trong tdng so 11 nhdm hang hda

tang gia, vdi miic tang tir 0,36 de'n

2,89%. Ddng thai CPI hai thdng

ddu nam cho thdy nhung diem

dang chii y sau day;

Thii nhdt, chi trong vdng 2

thang ddu nam, CPI ca nudc da

tang tdng cdng 3,78% so vdi thdi

diem cudi nam 2010. Trong khi

dd, muc tieu lam phdt dugc Qud'c

hdi phe duyet cho ca nam 2011 la

dudi 7%. Nhin vao ca cdu tfnh chi

sd gia do Tdng cue Thd'ng ke cung

cdp, dl nhan thdy gia ca thdng 2

chiu tac ddng manh cua 2 nhdm

mat hang la hang an - dich vu an

udng va dd udng thudc la.

Khdng nam ngoai du doan ciia

cac chuyen gia kinh te, chi sd gia

tieu dung tai Ha Ndi va TP Hd

Chf Minh da tang manh trong

thang 2-2011. CPI tai Ha Ndi da

tang 1,98%, so vdi eon sd 1,68%

ciia thang 1. Tai TP Hd Chf Minh,

miic tang CPI la 1,61%, trong khi

thang 1 la 1,01%. CPI thang 2

tang manh la do thdi dilm diln ra

Tet Nguyen dan, vdi siic mua tren

thi trudng tang manh nhdt trong

^ TS NGUYI N MIN H PHONG

nam. Nhu vay, nhin chung TP

HCM va Ha Ndi trong 3 thang

qua CPI tang lidn tiep tren 1%.

TTiii hai, chi so gia cua 10/11

nhdm hang tieu diing dIu tang,

nhung tdc do khac nhau giiia cac

nhdm hang hda, dich vu. Ddn ddu vl

miic tang la nhdm hang an va dich

vu an udng vdi miic tang 3,65%;

trong dd luong thuc tang 2,28% va

tiiuc pham tang 4,53%. Dien hinh

nhu ddu an tang 7,4%; banh mut keo

tang 3,17%; siia ndi tang 2,07%...

cdc loai thit che bien ddng hop ciing

tang 2,54%. Ridng gia thit Ign, loai

thuc pham phd bien nhat da tang gia

manh vdi miic 4,98% so vdi thang

tmdc; trong dd gia thit Ign than hien

d miic 85 den 95 nghin ddng/kg.

Ngoai ra, gia gas tang 2,55%, gid vat

heu xay dung tang.

Thii ba, cac nguyen nhan gay

tang CPI vl ca ban vdn tap trung

vao nhitng nhan to quen thudc,

trudc he't gdn vdi nhung su gia

tang nhu cdu tieu dung gdn vdi le,

tet va su dilu chinh gia ca thi

trudng nhitng hang hda ddu vdo

nhay cam trdn dien rdng.

VI trien vgng, ddng thdi CPI tit

nay den cudi nam 2011 se phitc tap

va khd ludng, do chiu hop luc ciia

nhilu nhan to tac ddng true tiep va

gian tie'p, mc thdi hay tri mudn ft

nhilu do: Tang gid xang, than,

dien (theo Id trinh thuc hien gia ca

thi trudng), nudc, chi phf van tai.

miic tiln luang, lai suat ngan hang

va cac chi phi vdn cua doanh

nghiep; Tang dau m cho qua trinh

tai cdu tnic trong khi he qua cua

qua trinh dd lai chua bdc Id ngay

lap mc; kha nang duy tri td'c do

tang trudng kinh te, thfch ling vdi

cac yeu cau va do hoa va canh

tranh binh ddng thi trudng, dam

bao dn dinh hoa mdi trudng dau

m-kinh doanh va su can bdng giira

cac lgi ich va muc tieu chfnh sach.

Ngoai ra, kinh te the gidi 2011

cdn tilm an nhilu bat dn tren thi

trudng hang hoa va tai chfnh-tiln

te, trong dd cd xu hudng tiep tuc

hoac gia tang bie'n ddng ty gia hdi

doai ciia cac ddng tiln chu chdt va

khung hoang ng do tham hut ngan

sdch ciia nhilu nudc nhu la he qua

cac gdi kich thfch kinh te keo dai

de'n 2010; ddng thdi, nhilu kha

nang cho thay su phuc hdi timg

budc nin kinh te' va gia tang cdc

hoat ddng tieu thu hang hod,

nguydn heu ca tren thi trudng

trong nudc va the gidi se cd the

lam tang ddng thdi cdc loai lam

phdt chi phf day va lam phat ngoai

nhap nhu mat trai va he qua di

kem tat ye'u eua tang trudng va

toan cdu hoa. Nhin chung, CPI

nam 2011 trong nudc se cd mdt so

xu hudng ndi bat sau:

Mdt la, xu hudng CPI ca nam

se tang, giam vl co ban theo dd

thi hinh sin; cu the, CPI tang vao

nhiing thang sau Tet Nguyen dan,

rdi giam ddn m ddu quy II va lai

tie'p tuc tang trd lai vao cudi quy

m, ddu quy IV.

Hai la, miic tang gia ca se khdng

ddng deu theo cdc nhdm hang hda

va dich vu. Do dilu chinh ty gia kha

sdc trong ngay 11.2.2011 Idn tdi

9,3% dilu chinh gid xang ddu vao

ngay 24/2 len tdi 2.900 ddng/h't dua

gia xang Idn miic 19.300 ddng/ht va

do trang thai can ddi cung-cdu thi

trudng, ndn se cd su dieu chinh tang

gia manh trudc het d nhdm hang

dtd va hang ngoai nhap khac, nhdm

luang thuc, thuc phdm moi sd'ng, dd

udng, thie't bi va dd dimg gia dinh,

ciing nhu mdt sd dich vu du lich.

SO 9 (319)-KY 1/3'2011 Thue Nha Nu6c 27