Bài toán

28/8/1945 28/8/2010

BAI TOAN

il hau" khung hodng tdi chinh

NhOng vdn de trpng tdm trong chinh sdch tdi chinh cua Viet Nam giai dogn hdu khung hodng

IS. PHAM VAN HA

Chinh sdch kich thich kinh te trong ndm 2009 nita ddu ndm 2010 dd thu

duoc nhung thdnh cdng nhdt dinh. Tuy nhien, trong nita cuoi ndm 2010 nin

kinh tevdn cdn ddi mat vdi nhiing nguy co: nhu cdu trong nudc ddi vdi hdng

ndi dia tdng cham, trong khi nhu cdu hen ngodi Mn che; nhdp sieu lan; thi

trudng bdt ddng sdn, hdi doai vdn cdn diin hien phuc tgp; Idi suat dang a

mite cao. Vl vay, trong tdm chinh sdch tdi chinh cud'i ndm 2010 cdn hudng

tdi Id: hgn che thdm hut ngdn sdch; kiim che tdng gid; hgn che nhdp sieu;

gidm sdt chat cdc he soan todn vdn vd on dinh thi trudng tdi chinh...

Nhin Iqi tdc ddng cua

khung hodng tdi

kinh te Viet Nam

Cudc khimg hoang kinh te,

tai ehinh 2008-2009 bit ngudn

tir My da nhanh chdng lan

rdng khien nin kinh ti thi gidi

roi vao suy thoai va GDP thi

gidi da sut giam 0,6% nam

2009 (IMF 2010). Kinh te Viet

Nam ciing hiing chiu nhiing

tac ddng manh tir cudc khiing

hoang, dac biet tai thdi diem

dau 2009. Nhiing tac ddng rd

ret nhat eiia cudc khiing hoang

cd thi ke ra la:

Suy giam tdc do

tang trw&ng

Tdc dd tang trudng kinh te

quy 1/2009 chi dat 3,1%, miic

tha'p nha't ke tir nam 2001 trd

lai day. Tang trudng sut giam

the hien d hau hit ta't ea eac

nganh kinh ti chu luc, nhu

ndng nghiep, cdng nghiep che

bien, cdng nghiep dien, nudc,

ga. Dac biet, nganh cdng

nghiep chi biin da ed tdc dp

tang trudng am Iin diu tien ki

tii nam 2001.

Sut giam tong cau

Cac sd lieu thdng ke cho

thay tieu dimg cudi cimg va

diu tu bat diu tang trudng

cham lai tir nam 2008 (so vdi

nam 2007) va sut giam rat

manh trong quy 1/2009. Dau

tu nudc ngoai giam manh

khien tdng vdn diu tu toan xa

hdi chi tang 9% vi danh nghia

trong quy 1/2009 - mdt tdc dp

tang trudng am niu loai trir

yiu td lam phat.

Xuat nhap khaiu sut giam

Tdng kim ngach xua't khau

cua Viet Nam cho din thang

9/2009 da sut giam 14% va kit

thiic nam vin sut giam xap xi

10%. Vi nhap khau, quy

1/2009, kim ngach nhap khau

giam tdi 45%. Vdi xap xi 90%

hang hda nhap khau la nguyen

vat lieu va may mdc dimg

trong san xuat, hien tijpng

xuat khau giam la mdt canh

bao rai rd rang vi su sut giam

ciia san xua't trong nudc trong

quy tiep theo.

Thu hep tin dung

Tac ddng tam ly rat manh

tir cudc khiing hoang cdng

vdi su sut giam tdc dp tang

trudng kinh ti da anh hudng

rat ldn tdi cae ngan hang.

Trong quy 1/2009, phan iing

chung ciia he thd'ng ngan

hang la rat de dat cho vay.

Niu nhu tdng phuong tien

thanh toan van tang d muc

xap xi nam 2008 thi vd'n huy

ddng cho vay nen kinh te qua

he thdng ngan hang diu tang

trudng kha thap, dae biet la

cho vay nin kinh ti chi tang

2,7% trong quy I, chi dat xap

xi 1/10 td'c dp tang trudng

ciia ea nam 2008. Day rd rang

la nhung da'u hieu diu tien

ciia thu hep tin dung, mdt

hien tupng lam dieu diing

nin kinh te the gidi van thdi

diem dd.

36 THANG 8/2010 Tai .