Applying Multiple Linear Regression For Predicting Land Price In Tien Du District Bac Ninh Province

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ABSTRACT

The real estate appraisal or land pricing has an increasing importance due to strong

growth of the real estate market in Vietnam in the last years. In that respect, a permanent

preoccupation for specialists is to find newer and better methods to evaluate the real estates.

In the international practice, using new approach of appraisal methods is statistical and

econometric models. The main aim of the paper is to establish and propose an applied

multiple linear regression model based on the factors can affect the price of land in Tien Du

District. The study areas covered by the statistical appraisal are selected from geographical

localities, categories or subjects to property taxes.

Key words: real estate appraisal, land pricing, multiple linear regression model

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

After an intensive period of three months, today is the day: writing this note of thanks

is the finishing touch on my thesis to the people who have supported and helped me so much

throughout this period.

I would first like to show my gratitude to respected supervisor Dr. Le Dinh Hai from

Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Vietnam National University of Forestry

for his continuous support, patient guidance and enthusiastic encouragement during this

research.

I want to thank you for Prof. Dr. Lee McDonald, Department of Ecosystem Science

and Sustainability, Colorado State University for his valuable and constructive suggestions

during the planting of this research work.

In addition, I would love to thank various people for their contribution to this project;

Special thanks to local people in Tien Du district for providing me helpful information in this

study.

Finally, I own my gratefully thank to my parents, my friends for their wise counsel and

sympathetic ear. You always there for me.

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TABLE OF CONTENT

ABSTRACT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 1

CHAPTER 2. STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ............................................................ 4

2.1 Goal .................................................................................................................................. 4

2.2 Specific Objectives ........................................................................................................... 4

CHAPTER 3. STUDY AREA AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ................................... 5

3.1. Study area ........................................................................................................................ 5

3.1.1. Bac Ninh Province ........................................................................................................ 5

3.1.2 Tien Du District ............................................................................................................. 7

3.2. Research methodology ..................................................................................................... 9

3.2.1. The theory of hedonic and multiple linear regression method ...................................... 10

3.2.2. Framework of factors influencing factors the price of land in market .......................... 12

3.2.3. Data collection method: .............................................................................................. 15

3.2.4. Data analysis method: ................................................................................................. 16

CHAPTER 4: RESULT ........................................................................................................ 21

4.1. Preparation data ............................................................................................................. 21

4.1.1. Editing ........................................................................................................................ 21

4.1.2. Coding ........................................................................................................................ 21

4.2. Description data ............................................................................................................. 22

4.2.1. Descriptive statistic quantitative variables on surveyed in Tien Du District ................. 22

4.2.2. Descriptive statistic qualitative variables on land price survey in Tien Du District ...... 22

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4.3. Evaluating model ........................................................................................................... 24

4.3.1 Basing on the R- square statistic to evaluate the suitability of model ............................ 26

4.3.2 Analyzing ANOVA variance to evaluate the extinction of model. ................................ 28

4.4. Correlations analysis ...................................................................................................... 28

4.5. Independent sample test (F-test/ Levene’s test) .............................................................. 23

4.6. The result of Linear Multiple Regression ....................................................................... 32

4.6.1 Evaluating the independent of variables………………………………………………31

4.6.2 Checking the defect of model………………………………………………………….32

4.6.3 The contribution of independent variables into model…………………………………32

4.6.4 Evaluating marginal influence………………………………………………………….33

CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION ................................................................................................ 35

5.1. The evaluating the reality of regression .......................................................................... 35

5.2. The solutions for achieving applying multiple linear regression in Tien Du district ........ 36

5.2.1. Solution based on building land pricing system ........................................................... 36

5.2.2. Solution based on building data source ........................................................................ 36

5.2.3. Solution based on knowledge on multiple linear regression model on land pricing of

appraisers. ............................................................................................................................ 37

CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION

CHAPTER 7: REFERENCES

CHAPTER 8: APPENDICES

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 3.1. The map of Bac Ninh province ............................................................................. 6

Figure 3.2. The map of Tien Du District, Bac Ninh province .................................................. 8

Figure 3.3. Research framework ............................................................................................. 9

Figure 3.4: Factors influences the price of land ..................................................................... 13

Figure 4.1 Regression standardized residual………………………………………………….31

Figure 4.2 Normal P-P plot…………………………………………………………………...31

Figure 4.3 Scatterplot…………………………………………………………………………32