A history of the science and politics of climate change

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A HISTORY OF THE SCIENCE AND POLITICS OF

CLIMATE CHANGE

The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The issue of human-induced global climate change became a major environ￾mental concern during the twentieth century, and is the paramount environmental

debate of the twenty-first century. Response to climate change requires effective

interaction from the scientific community, society in general, and politicians in

particular. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), formed in

1988, has gradually developed to become the key UN body in providing this

service to the countries of the world.

Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of

the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in

the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and

the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have

prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging

conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing

a serious change in global climate. This text provides researchers and policy

makers with an insight into the history of the politics of climate change.

BERT BOLIN is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Meteorology at the

University of Stockholm, Sweden. He is a former Director of the International

Institute for Meteorology in Stockholm, and former Scientific Advisor to the

Swedish Prime Minister. He was Chairman of the IPCC from 1988 to 1997.

Professor Bolin has received many awards during his career, including the

Blue Planet Prize from the Asahi Glass Foundation, the Rossby Medal from

the American Meteorological Society, the Global Environmental Leadership

Award from the World Bank, and the Arrhenius Medal from the Royal Swedish

Academy of Sciences.

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A HISTORY OF THE SCIENCE

AND POLITICS OF

CLIMATE CHANGE

The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change

BERT BOLIN

University of Stockholm

IPCC Chairman 1988–1997

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CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS

Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, Sa˜o Paulo

Cambridge University Press

The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

www.cambridge.org

Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521880824

© B. Bolin 2007

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,

no reproduction of any part may take place without

the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2007

Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

ISBN 978-0-521-88082-4 hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or

accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to

in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such

websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

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Contents

Foreword by Bo Kjelle´n page ix

Abbreviations xi

Part I The early history of the climate change issue 1

1 Nineteenth-century discoveries 3

2 The natural carbon cycle and life on earth 9

2.1 Glimpses of the historical development of

our knowledge 9

2.2 A simplified view of the present carbon cycle 13

3 Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology 19

3.1 Building scientific networks 19

3.2 Concern for the environment reaches the political agenda 27

3.3 The Global Atmospheric Research Programme becomes

engaged in the climate issue 28

4 Early international assessments of climate change 33

4.1 Initiation of assessments aimed at politicians and society 33

Part II The climate change issue becomes one of global concern 41

5 Setting the stage 43

5.1 The report by the UN Commission on Environment and

Development 43

5.2 How to create a forum for interactions between science

and politics 45

5.3 The IPCC is formed and a first assessment is begun 49

6 The scientific basis for a climate convention 53

6.1 Work begins 53

6.2 Politicians are anxious to show their concern for

the environment 56

6.3 The IPCC works towards the completion of the

First Assessment Report 61

v

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6.4 The acceptance and approval of the IPCC

First Assessment Report 67

6.5 Scientific input in the negotiations about a

framework convention 68

6.6 What has the experience so far to say about the

role of science? 77

7 Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiations Committee 79

7.1 Changes of the IPCC structure and new members of

the Bureau 79

7.2 Cooperation with the Intergovernmental

Negotiations Committee 85

7.3 Predictions or scenarios of future changes of the

global climate? 87

7.4 Attempting to put Article 2 of the Climate Convention

into focus 93

7.5 Equity and social considerations 94

7.6 Growing awareness of climate change and polarisation

of opinions 97

7.7 The approval of the 1994 special report runs

into difficulties 102

7.8 Preparing for the future role of the IPCC 104

8 The IPCC second assessment report 106

8.1 First party conference of the FCCC 106

8.2 The IPCC Second Assessment Report 111

8.3 Stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations 119

8.4 The synthesis report 122

9 In the aftermath of the IPCC second assessment 125

9.1 The post-Second Assessment Report discussions of an

action programme to be agreed in Kyoto 125

9.2 The IPCC assessment is challenged 126

9.3 Preparation for the third conference of the parties to

FCCC in Kyoto 137

9.4 Increasing industrialisation and globalisation of the world 143

9.5 Starting work towards a third assessment 144

10 The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun 147

10.1 Central themes of the Protocol 147

10.2 The interplay of science and politics 153

10.3 Opposition to the Kyoto Protocol grows 154

10.4 How to settle disagreements on the interpretation of

the Kyoto Protocol 159

vi Contents

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11 A decade of hesitance and slow progress 163

11.1 Work towards the IPCC Third Assessment Report 163

11.2 Resistance towards taking action and political

man
uvring 178

11.3 Other challenges of the IPCC conclusions 181

11.4 The leadership of the IPCC is changed 185

11.5 Ratifications of the Kyoto Protocol 187

11.6 The eleventh conference of the parties to the

Climate Convention 190

Part III Are we at a turning point in addressing climate change? 193

12 Key scientific findings of prime political relevance 195

12.1 The general setting 195

12.2 The story of global warming told to politicians,

stakeholders and the public 196

12.3 Impacts and adaptation 210

12.4 Science, media and the general public 211

13 Climate change and a future sustainable global energy supply 214

13.1 Delayed action in spite of trustworthy scientific assessments 214

13.2 Past and future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols 215

13.3 Primary energy reserves and resources and their utilisation 224

13.4 The supply of energy under the constraints of minimising

climate change 233

13.5 The need for a multidimensional approach 238

13.6 The economy of a transition to a sustainable energy

supply system 242

13.7 Politics of securing a global sustainable energy

supply system 245

Some concluding remarks 248

Notes 251

References 262

Name Index 273

Subject Index 275

Contents vii

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Foreword

Bo Kjelle´n

As a climate negotiator in the early 1990s I have a strong recollection of

the impact of Professor Bolin’s statements to the International Negotiating

Committee for the Framework Convention on Climate Change. When the chair￾man of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented

its findings there was silence in the room: here were the facts, the certainties

and the uncertainties.

We were all part of a process in which national interests and national instruc￾tions governed our actions and limited the rate of progress. We were all painfully

aware of this, and we were also on a learning curve. As diplomats and generalists,

most of us had limited knowledge of the substantial issues of climate change, but

here we had the opportunity to listen to one of the most prestigious experts,

speaking in clear language, devoid of academic jargon. Furthermore, we realised

that Bert Bolin, as a former scientific adviser in the Swedish Prime Minister’s

office, had a thorough knowledge of the political process, its possibilities and

limitations.

All this enabled him to set high standards for the work of the IPCC from the

beginning, creating a scientific backstop to the negotiations which in my view has

had a decisive impact on the relative success of the process. The IPCC is not only

a venue for interdisciplinary science, it is also a meeting-place for researchers and

Government officials, thereby facilitating the inevitable process of multilateral

bargaining on the terms of legally binding international instruments.

As the discussions and negotiations for the climate regime after 2012 now get

under way, it is of great importance that negotiators have a clear picture of the

background to the negotiations, and that they realise the full importance of the

subtle interaction between scientific research and progress in the negotiations.

This book provides an inside view and an authoritative interpretation of the

process which will no doubt assist in the difficult tasks ahead. It will also help

all interested to get a clearer picture of the status of climate research and of the

ix

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energy futures that will be decisive for global economic and political relations all

through this century.

However, there are also wider issues involved. Changes in immense global

systems brought about by human influence go beyond climate. Freshwater,

oceans, desertification, fisheries and biodiversity are all issues that create serious

threats for the future. We are only beginning to grasp the complicated systemic

problems involved; still less do we understand how our society can best cope with

them. But we realize that sound scientific research – within both the natural and

the social sciences – is necessary to provide background for political action. The

IPCC approach may provide important clues to how to tackle other global

problems.

One final remark about the nature of these threats, and their impact on the

international political system: in my view, the fact that we risk creating irrevers￾ible damage to the planet’s life-supporting systems forces us to consider new

objectives in international cooperation in order to ensure the welfare of future

generations. Therefore I believe that a new diplomacy for sustainable develop￾ment is emerging, still in the shadow of traditional diplomacy with its reliance on

national security, ultimately through military means. As the character of global

threats of a new kind is more clearly understood, it may well be that this new

diplomacy will create different and better ways of dealing with common prob￾lems, opening new avenues for multilateral cooperation in the UN framework, at

present clearly in crisis. Since this diplomacy for sustainable development is so

dependent on scientific research, the IPCC story is worth considering very

carefully.

x Foreword

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Abbreviations

ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (IASC)

AGBM Ad-hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (FCCC, 1995–1997)

AGGG Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (ICSU/UNEP/WMO)

AMS American Meteorological Society

AR4 IPCC Assessment Report No 4. (2007)

BAS British Antarctic Survey

CAS Committee on Atmospheric Sciences (IUGG/ICSU)

CCS Carbon Capture and Storage

CFC Chlorofluorocarbons

COSPAR Committee on Space Research (ICSU)

CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research

Organisation (Australia)

FAR First Assessment Report (IPCC, 1990)

FCCC Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN)

FGGE First GARP Global Experiment (JOC, 1978–80)

GARP Global Atmospheric Research Programme (ICSU/WMO,

1967–1980)

GATE GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (JOC, 1974)

GCM Global Circulation Model

GPP Gross Primary Production

IAMAP International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric

Physics (IUGG)

IASC International Arctic Science Committee

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation

ICSU International Council of Science (earlier; Scientific Unions)

IEA International Energy Agency

IGBP International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (ICSU)

IHD International Hydrological Decade (UNESCO)

xi

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IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

INC Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (UN)

IOC International Ocean Commission (UNESCO)

IUBS International Union of Biological Sciences (ICSU)

IUCC Information Unit on Climate Change (WMO/UNEP)

IUGG International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (ICSU)

JOC Joint Organising Committee of GARP (ICSU/WMO,

1968–1980)

LCA Life Cycle Analysis

MAB Man and the Biosphere (UNESCO)

MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

NAS National Academy of Science, USA

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Agency, USA

NBP Net Biome Production

NCAR National Corporation for Atmospheric Research, USA

NEP Net Ecosystem Production

OASIS The Alliance of Small Island States

OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

ppmv parts per million of volume

SAR Second Assessment Report (IPCC, 1995)

SBI Subsidiary Body for Implementation (FCCC)

SBSTA Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technolgical

Advice (FCCC)

SCEP Studies of Critical Environmental Problems

SCOPE Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (ICSU)

SMIC Study of Man’s Impact on Climate

SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC, 2000)

TAR Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001).

TEAP Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (Parties to the

Montreal Protocol)

TERI TATA Energy Research Institute (Bombay)

UCAR University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,

Boulder, CO, USA

UGGI Union de Geodesie et Geophysique International (see IUGG)

UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development

(Rio, 1992)

UNEP United Nations Environmental Program (UN)

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and

Cultural Organisation

URSI Union Radio Scientifique International (ICSU)

xii Abbreviations

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UTAM Union of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics (ICSU)

WCED World Commission on Environment and Development,

Brundtland Commission (UN, 1984–1987)

WCRP World Climate Research Programme (WMO/ICSU/IOC, 1980)

WMO World Meteorological Organisation

WWW World Weather Watch (WMO)

Abbreviations xiii

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Part One

The early history of the climate change issue