10 dự báo kinh tế thế giới trong năm 2008

TAI CHINH QUOC TE ( So 2(55) - 2008 )

10 Dir BAO KINH TE THE Gl6l

TR(IX(i IVAM 2()0»

1. Tang trudng kinh te My se

a miirc thap nhait ke tir nam

2002, va cd the cham ngudng

thaip nhat so vdi thdi ky suy

thoai gan day nhat

Nam 2002, kinh te My do

chju anh hudng ciia nhung

cudc khiing hoang tai chinh

tiln te chau A, chau My

Latinh, Nga..., va dac biet la

hai cii sdc lien tie'p: cudc tan

cdng khiing bd 11/9/2001 ciing

su cd "vd bong bdng nen kinh

te mdi dot-com" nen chi dat

mirc gugng nhe 1,6%. Budc

sang nam 2008, kinh te My du

bao d mire lae quan nhat ciing

chi dat khoang 1,9% va cd qua

nhilu riii ro nen rat cd thi cdn

thap hon. Nguyen nhan chfnh

lan nay lai la cudc khiing

hoang nha dai \a cho vay bat

ddng san ciia chfnh nudc My,

gay tac ddng lam "mat di'

khoang 1 % GDP thuc ciia nen

kinh te My trong ca nam 2008.

Chi tieu tieu diing d My dugc

du bao la se giam tu mirc 2,8%

(2007) xud'ng chi cdn l,77o

trong nam 2008. Bii lai, chi tieu

vd'n ciia khu \'Uc doanh nghiep

My lai dugc ky vgng tang nhe

len mii'c 2,6%. Dilu lac quan la

nudc My cd thi sdm dat dugc

muc xuat khau rdng thuc

duong dl gdp phan dua miic

tang trudng them 0,9%.

2. Hau het cac khu vuc

khac tren the gidi cung se suy

giam tdc do phat trien kinh te

Ngoai mdt sd khu \'Uc va

qud'c gia cd ngudn xuat khaiu

dau md va hang hoa Idn, tang

trudng kinh te the gidi sang

nam 2008 se phai "\'at Idn" va

suy giam ciing sir khiing hoang

ciia nin kinh te My. Chau Au

se chju nhilu tac ddng xau vdi

tang trudng kinh te nhu suy

giam kinh te toan cau; ddng

Euro manh len, xu the khan

hiem tin dung van tie'p tuc; cac

du tran cua con khiing hoang

thj trudng nha dat, gia nang

lugng tang cao...

Nhat Ban ciing se chju

nhiJng anh hudng tuong tu

nhung d mii'c do nhe hon. Cac

thj trudng va cac nin kinh te

dang phat triln chau A .se phu

thude nhilu vao mirc do

"khang cu" cung nhu tang

trudng CLia cac nin kinh te Idn

trong khu \'Uc khac nhu Trung

Qude, an Do...

3. Kinh te Trung Quoc va

nhieu nen kinh te chau a khac

khdng "giam nhiet" dang ke

cho den cudi 2008.

Kinh tetoan cau suy giam se

chi anh hudng nhe de'n tdc do

tang trudng chdng mat (vdi

miifc tren 11,5% hien nay)

ciia Trung Qud'c trong nam

2008 (cdn 10,8%). Trong

nira dau nam 2008, Trung

Qud'c se van tie'p tuc tang lai

suat \a dilu chinh len gia

ddng Nhan dan te. Sau su

kien Olympics Bac Kinh

vao quy III/2008, chinh phu

Thu Trang

Trung Qud'c cd the se vSn phai

tie'p tuc that chat hon nira cac

dilu kien tin dung. Do dd se

giam tdc do tang trudng xud'ng

chiit it.

Kinh te An Do lai chu ye'u

hudng vao nhu cau trong nudc

nen vkn cd the duy tri dugc mirc

tang trudng 8,5%.

Trong vien canh nay, phan

cdn lai ciia chau A se cd sir chi

phd'i tfch cue dii bu lai tac ddng

xau tir bdi canh kinh te the gidi

suy giam.

4. Gia dau liira se giam nhe

nhu'ng v^n duy tri a miirc cao

Tang trudng toan cau ye'u di

cung se gdp phan giam sdt gia

dau va daiy dan can can cung -

cau vi nhirng miic phii hgp.

Nbii'ng ye'u to hien nay cd thi

dua de'n mirc gia dau dao ddng

trong khoang 75 USD den 80

USD/tbiing trong nam tdi. Tuy

nhien, do cac ngudn cung con

ban che va cac thj trudng con

cang thang nen ne'u cd bie'n ddng

nao dd tac ddng de'n ben cung thi

se lai khien gia dau vgt len.

Ngoai nhung ye'u to dja chfnh trj

\'d'n di da la mdt phan gay tac

40 > Tap chi nghien cCru Tdi chinh ke' todn

( Sd2(55) - 2008 ') TAI CHiNH QUOC TE

ddng manh de'n gia dau, cdn

mdt ye'u td nira ma cac nha

phan tfch kinh teda tfnh de'n la

tinh trang dau co da xuat hien

va trong nam tdi ye'u td nay

ciing khd ludng.

5. Lam phat co ban se

ngirng tang va giam nhe

Nin kinh te My hien dang

suy giam va tat nhien la dudi

mirc tilm nang va dan dan

dilu nay se day ty le that

nghiep d My tang len. Xu the

nay se cd tac dung tfch cue la

chan da tang ciia lam phat co

ban d My, day ty le nay tir mirc

2% (2007) xud'ng cdn dudi

1,8% nam 2008. Xet rdng ra

vdi mat bang gia the gidi, dii

gia dau tang cao nhung van

chua gay nhilu tac ddng de'n

cac mii:c gia hang hoa khac va

tiln luong nen khd cd thi lam

tang tinh trang lam phat toan

cau hien nay. Muc lam phat co

ban toan cau dugc ky vgng se

tie'p tuc xu the nay ft nhat la

trong nam tdi.

6. Cue Dir trOr Lien bang

My (FED) cd the se vkn cdn

tiep tuc cat giam lai suait

Vi lam phat chua phai la

van dl nghiem trgng ma nen

kinh te lai suy giam nen FED

se tie'p tuc cat giam lai suat chii

dao. Nhilu phan tfch cho tha'y

trong nira dau nam 2008, cd

thi cd tdi 2 hoac 3 dgt cat giam

lai suat nira ciia FED. Ddng

thdi ne'u tinh trang khan hiem

tfn dung va khiing hoang nha

dai van tie'p tuc tdi te hon thi

FED khdng cdn lua chgn niio

khac la phai tiep tue bom vd'n

vao nen kinh te bang nhirng

giai phap ndi ldng tiln te song

hanh vdi cac chfnh sach tai

khoa md rdng ciia Chfnh phii

My.

7. anh hudng ciia cudc

khung hoang thi trudng nha

dat va cho vay bat ddng san

My cd the cham diirt vao giiira

nam 2008

Thj trudng nha dat se tie'p

tuc trugt dd'c ft nhat la cho de'n

giira nam tdi sau dd mdi hy

vgng dan hdi phuc. Thj trudng

tfn dung My do dd cung se tie'p

tuc chju dung nhirng tac ddng

khiing hoang va hau qua rd

nhat cac ngan hang, td chii-c tfn

dung My se phai rat nd luc giai

quye't cac khoan ngdgng.

8. Tham hut tai khoan

vang lai My se tiep tuc dugc

caithien

Tinh trang tham hut thuong

mai My da keo dai nhilu nam

va sir dilu chinh ma ca nudc

My va the gidi chd dgi tir lau

de'n nam 2007 da xay ra. Sir suy

giam ciia nin kinh temy se cd

anh hudng manh den phan cdn

lai ciia the gidi, rd nhat la d

khfa canh thuang mai. Ddng

USD da giam gia tdi hon 20%

(tfnh dua tren ty trgng thuong

mai thuc) trong vdng 5 nam

qua va se cdn tiep tuc trong

nam tdi nhung cd thi dan vl

mdc dn dinh. Do dd, xuat khau

ciia nhilu nudc vap phai su

canh tranh dir dgi hon nen cd

thi chirng lai, chua kl My se

phai giam kim ngach nhap

khaiu do tinh trang kinh te suy

giam.

9. Dong USD se cham

ngudng thap nhait ve gia tri

so vdi cac ddng tien manh

khac trong nam 2008

Ddng USD da theo xu the

giam gia sudt tir 2002 de'n nay

(chii ye'u la do tham hut can can

N'ang lai), nay lai them nen kinh

te My suy giam. Chua het. thj

trudng tiln te toiin ciiu cdn chiu

tac ddng rat manh tir nhirng ddng

thai cat giam lai suai chii dao ciia

FED. Tuy nhien, khi nin kinh te

My bat dau hdi phuc, dugc ky

vgng vao nira cudi nam 2008 dau

2009, khi dd cd thi xuat hien

tam ly tin tudng ddng USD hdi

phuc theo. Da cd nhirng du bao

manh dan cho rang ddng USD se

cham ngudng 1,55 USD/Euro

vao miia he 2008 va dan giam

nhe vao cudi nam. Tuy nhien,

vdi cac ddng tiln chau a nhu Yen

Nhat va Nhan dan te cho de'n

nhirng thdi dilm tren lai cd xu

the tang gia ciing ddng USD dii

la Nhat hay Trung Qud'c van

trong tinh trang thang ducan can

thuong mai.

10. Den giOra 2008, tang

trudng kinh te My cd the hoi

phuc nhe nhung nen kinh te

toan cau rat de bj anh hudng

trd lai neu xuat hien nhOrng cii

sdc mdi dii la rait nhd

Vai nam trudc, hau nhu

khdng cd du bao la nin kinh te

My se chju nhilu cii sdc nhu

hien nay, hoac sdc dii manh de

daiy nin kinh te'ldn nhat toan cau

nay den chd suy giam manh.

Nhung tren thuc te, chi sau

nhirng cii sdc khach quan la gia

dau tang vgt ciing nhirng nguyen

nhan ndi tai: Khiing hoang thj

trudng nha dat va tfn dung cho

vay bat ddng san da khien nin

kinh te My tham thfa. Ne'u gia

dau nam tdi giam dan vl ngudng

75 USD - 80 USD/ thiing vao

thdi diem giira nam 2008 thi nin

kinh te'My mdi cd thi thoat khdi

suy thoai. Tuy nhien, kha nang

gia diiu "trd ehii'ng" tie'p tuc tang

va cdng hudng vdi nhung cii sdc

mdi bat ngd nao dd thi mdi lo

ciia ngudi My cung nhu ciia ca

phan cdn lai ciia the gidi la cd co

sd. Da cd du bao la kha nang

nudc My suy thoai d mii:c 35% -

40%./.

Tap chi nghien cCfu Tdi chinh ke todn \4I

NGHIEN CL/U - TRAO 001 ( So 2(55)-2008

Nguyen nhdn gia tdng nhdp sieu vd

CAN MNG CAN CAN THf/(fNG MAI CUA VliTNAM

Nhap sieu khdng phai la van de mdi ddi vdi

Viet Nam, nhung nhap sieu tang nhanh tir

khi chiing ta la thanh vien chfnh thirc ciia

V/TO da bgc Id nhiing bat Igi ciia mdt nen kinh

te canh tranh thap - mgt thach thirc da dugc canh

bao khi hgi nhap vdi cac nen kinh te Idn.

CWC Ml

Trong nam 2006, tdng kim ngach xuat khau

la 39,6 ty USD (trj gia FOB), nhap khiu la 44.4

ty USD (trj gia CIF), nhap sieu 4,8 ty USD.

Nam 2007, tdng kim ngach xuat khau la 48,38

ty USD. nhap khiu la 60.83 ty USD. nhap sieu

la 12,45 ty USD. Neu chi nhin vao con sd xuat

khau, se khdng cd dugc cai nhin toan dien vl

ngoai thuong Viet Nam; xuat khau phai dugc

thdng bao gan lien vdi nhap khau thi mdi cd thi

phan tich day dii thuc trang kinh te Viet Nam.

Mac dii chiing ta da dat muc tieu can bang can

can thuong mai, nhung dudng nhu nhap sieu

ngay cang cd chieu hudng gia tang; nhap sieu

ciia nam 2007 gap hon 2 lan nhap sieu ciia nam

2006; trong khi dd, Bd Cdng thuong dat muc

tieu can bang can can thuang mai vao nam

2010, lieu cd kha thi khdng?

Nhin lai tdc do gia tang nhap sieu qua cac

thang trong nam 2007 cho thiy, khi mirc nhap

sieu 9 thang diu nam 2007 len tdi 7,6 ty USD,

Bd Ke hoach va Dau tu da cdng bd du bao nhap

PGS.TS Vu Thj Bach Tuy§t

sieu nam 2007 ed the len tdi 9 ty USD, bang

18.75% tdng kim ngach xuat khau. Ngay trong

thang 10. cac chuyen gia kinh te da cho rang,

mirc du bao dd con thap, vi neu so sanh tdc do

nhap sieu cho thay mirc nhap sieu dang co xu

hudng len cao; bdi vi, neu 4 thang dau nam binh

quan nhap sieu gan 564 trieu USD/thang, thi tir

thang 5 den thang 9 da len tdi tren 1.076 trieu

USD/tharig. De dat dugc con sd nhu du bao, 3

thang cudi nam chi dugc nhap sieu 466,trieu

USD/thang- mdt con sd khd phan dau. Sd lieu

thirc te da cho thay, nhan djnh cua cac chuyen gia

da khdng sai. 10 thang dau nam 2007, kim ngach

xuit khau la 39.059 ty USD (tang 18,6% sg vdi

ciing ky nam 2006). kim ngach nhap khau la

47,98 ty USD (tang 30,5%) so vdi ciing ky nam

2006), nhap sieu 10 thang dau nam da len tdi

8.93 ty USD (22,9%) tdng kim ngach xuit khiu).

11 thang dau nam 2007, kim ngach xuat khau len

tdi 43,6 ty USD, kim ngach nhap khau da la 54.1

ty USD, nhap sieu 11 thang dau nam la 10,5 ty

USD.

Can phai ddi mat vdi thue tien, tim den

nguyen nhan dfch thuc ciia xu hudng tang nhanh

nhap sieu trong thdi gian gan day, tir do dua ra

giai phap ddng bd vugt qua thach thirc trong thdi

diem gay can nhat hien nay, neu khdng se khoco

the dat den muc tieu da djnh.

Nguyen nhan chu quan^ phat trien kinh te

ehii yeu dua vao nhirng yeu td cd sin, tang

trudng theo chieu rgng - the hien su tang trudng

va phat trien chua ben virng ciia nen kinh te Viet

Nam thdi gian qua. Cu the:

- Cac nganh san xuat trong nudc phu thuoc

nhieu vao nhap khau nguyen lieu va cdng nghe.

Khi gia hang hda tren the gidi tang, da anh hudng

true tiep den kim ngach nhap khiu; mat khac. gia

ciia cac yeu to dau vao tang da lam tang gia thanh

san pham dau ra. tir dd han che kha nang xuat

khau. vi yeu td lgi the gia thap tir trudc den nay

42> Tap chi nghien cOu Tdi chinh ke' todn